With a big day ahead, let’s get to our Shavkat Rakhmonov-Stephen Thompson pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks
Shavkat Rakhmonov-Stephen Thompson Pick, Odds and Preview
Shavkat Rakhmonov-Stephen Thompson Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Welterweight
Rakhmonov: -700 | Thompson: +410
Rakhmonov -3.5: -370 | Thompson +3.5: +255
Over 1.5: -166 | Under 1.5: +130
Shavkat Rakhmonov-Stephen Thompson Pick & Preview
Fights like the tilt between Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0) and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (17-6-1) tend to be the most unpredictable given the wide variance of outcomes.
Nonetheless, the fervor for Rakhmonov’s killer instinct leaves the over on 2.5 rounds as a tantalizing bet given Wonderboy’s history of fighting to decisions.
One thing we should never question is Wonderboy’s readiness for a long, drawn-out brawl. Out of his 19 UFC fights, 12 have gone to the scorecards for a rate of 63%.
With odds for Shavkat to finish Wonderboy by submission sitting at +120, the shortest of the bunch, it appears the books are banking on a vast disparity between the fighters’ grappling abilities.
This disparity is somewhat fair, given Shavkat’s proclivity for submissions while in the UFC and Wonderboy’s demonstrated lack of interest in grappling, but it doesn’t for Wonderboy’s defensive grappling ability.
Wonderboy has yet to be submitted while in the UFC despite fighting some of the best grapplers in the division and holds a respectable 69% takedown defense rate.
Wonderboy’s timing and technical prowess on the feet are prominent defensive mechanisms that allow him to defend the takedown by darting away from his opponent’s shots or by landing a well-timed counter.
Looking for more UFC 296 picks? expert picks page.
His ability to get up from the ground has been an issue, which could cause him problems in the event of a decision, but his defense against his opponents’ submissions and ground and pound have kept him from getting finished despite long periods of control time.
On the feet, Wonderboy is as competitive as anybody, and he can sustain real damage, as evidenced by his most recent fight with Kevin Holland. While Rakhmonov is a different kind of beast, one who will certainly not high-five Wonderboy throughout the bout and let him up from the ground as Holland did, there should be no question about Wonderboy’s toughness. In his career, Wonderboy has taken 453 significant strikes to the head but only succumbed to a knockout once.
Rakhmonov’s fights have predictably drawn longer as he has taken a step up in competition, with his fight against Neil Magny drawing late into the second round, and his fight against Geoff Neal ending in the last minutes. With the step up even further in competition to a brawler like Wonderboy, the oddsmakers have underestimated the distance to which this fight could go.
Best UFC Rakhmonov-Thompson Bet & Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds +125 at DraftKings
