With a big UFC 297 day ahead, let’s get to our Sean Strickland-Dricus Du Plessis pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks
Sean Strickland-Dricus Du Plessis Pick, Odds and Preview
Sean Strickland-Dricus Du Plessis Odds
UFC 297 Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Middleweight
Strickland: -115 | Du Plessis: -105
Strickland -5.5: +115 | Du Plessis +5.5: -150
Over 2.5: -110 | Under 2.5: -120
Sean Strickland-Dricus Du Plessis Pick & Preview
There is certainly no love lost between Sean Strickland (28-5) and Dricus Du Plessis (20-2) heading into their title fight for the Middleweight strap.
Assuming Strickland doesn’t make good on his threat to stab Du Plessis before entering the octagon, this fight should have plenty of fireworks. The odds may favor Strickland, but that creates value in riding with Du Plessis to take his place atop the throne.
Strickland has had a tale of two careers after his incredible short-notice performance against Israel Adesanya in his last bout.
Before winning the middleweight belt, Strickland was somewhat of a journeyman with little chance at a title shot. He had gone just 2-2 in his four fights before stepping into his fight against Izzy, so, barring a run, he would likely have been boxed out of the upper reaches of the division.
After he took the title, however, he immediately cemented his name as one of the biggest in the sport and garnered a dedicated fan base, both due to his fighting and his out-of-the-ring persona.
Nevertheless, let’s dig a little deeper.
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The fact remains Strickland had never beaten an elite fighter before his last fight. Strickland lost all three of his previous three fights against title winners or title contenders — but one of those came against Kamaru Usman before Strickland made the jump to middleweight. While fighters can certainly make changes to their game to reach a higher level, it’s likelier that Strickland simply isn’t an elite fighter but is instead a solid one with certain elite elements to his game.
One of the elite elements of Strickland’s game is his striking defense. When combined with his unorthodox, pressure-heavy style, he threw off Adesanya’s timing and walked through him. However, Strickland’s defense isn’t perfect. His strike defense rate sits at 63%. Just five fights ago, he got knocked out by light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira. Strickland deserves credit for bringing Pereira into his camp to sharpen his striking, but Du Plessis’ strength and aggression will be a different challenge altogether.
Adesanya’s counter-heavy style was tailor-made for Strickland to control the pace with heavy pressure. He will not have that luxury against Du Plessis, who lands a ballistic 6.95 significant strikes per minute to go with 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. Du Plessis’ opponents rarely find themselves on the front foot, with all but one succumbing to a finish before the final bell.
Du Plessis gives his opponents openings to tag him early before he finds his range, as proven early in the first round of his fight against Robert Whitaker. However, as the fight progressed, Du Plessis adjusted and avoided Whitaker’s shots while landing some devastating ones of his own. If Strickland cannot take advantage of early holes in Du Plessis’ game, he could be in for a long night. Ultimately, it looks likelier than not that Strickland’s run will come to an early end, but one thing is certain: if Strickland can defend his belt, he won’t do so quietly.
Best Sean Strickland-Dricus Du Plessis Pick: Du Plessis ML -105 at DraftKings
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