With UFC Fight Night quickly approaching, using industry-leading tools, it’s time to release our Grant Dawson-Bobby Green pick, prediction, odds and more!
Grant Dawson-Bobby Green Pick, Prediction and Odds
Grant Dawson: -450 | Bobby Green: +333
The main event is a lightweight division match between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green, with Dawson a -450 favorite. Dawson has never lost in the UFC and most recently rag-dolled Damir Ismagulov for 15 minutes in July. On the other side, Green submitted a washed-up Tony Ferguson back in July as well.
Dawson has a 20-1-1 professional record featuring four knockouts and 13 submissions. His only loss came via knockout to Hugh Pulley outside the UFC in 2016. Other than that, he fought to a draw against Ricky Glenn back in 2021. Outside of those two bouts, Dawson has steamrolled competition, landing 2.99 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.22.
On the mat, he averages 3.70 takedowns per bout and has 40% takedown. Dawson has some of the best wrestling and submissions in the UFC, making his 40% takedown defense of little concern.
Green has a 30-14 record with 10 knockouts and nine submissions. In defeat, Green has been knocked out four times and submitted twice. Green does his best work standing, landing 6.14 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.67. He does land 1.21 takedowns per bout, but he should be at a major disadvantage on the ground. He has been out-grappled multiple times in the UFC, including against Islam Makhachev back in 2022.
Dawson is the younger fighter and more skilled athlete across the board, and as such he deserves to be a major favorite. Even at -450, Dawson still is a value play.
Best Grant Dawson-Bobby Green Pick: Joe Pyfer -450
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