It’s almost time for UFC 287! The contest between the current middleweight champion, Alex Pereira, and former champion Israel Adesanya will headline the event. Adesanya lost to Pereira at UFC 281 last November after getting knocked out in the fifth round. Without further ado, here are our top bets for UFC 287, including plays for Joe Pyfer and Santiago Ponzinibbio.
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Dog of the Week: Santiago Ponzinibbio for +210 at Caesars
Santiago Ponzinibbio enters his bout against Kevin Holland as a sizeable underdog. But Holland shouldn’t be this heavily favored, especially since he has such a low fight IQ.
Ponzinibbio will be at a reach and size disadvantage but should have the grappling edge here. Mixing in takedowns along with forward pressure should work to cut the size disadvantage. Ponz should also use his good calf-kicking game, which could be a major weapon in this fight. Alex Oliveira dropped Holland twice with calf kicks
My one concern with Ponz is the age and durability issue based on his last fight, but the man always fights through adversity. This line should be closer to +150.
Prop of the Week: Joe Pyfer by KO/TKO for +110 at FanDuel
Joe Pyfer enters UFC 287 with plenty of hype. He is also on a three-fight winning streak. Pyfer is just 26 years old and is trending upward, but the same can’t be said about his opponent, Gerald Meerschaert, who is 35.
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Meerschaert has gotten knocked out in three of his seven UFC losses and has trouble against big, powerful strikers like Pyfer. Meerschaert is a liability on the feet, especially when going backward with his hands down, which should help Pyfer land that straight right hand.
Dana White clearly loves Pyfer, and I think they have given him a very favorable matchup. Pyfer should land the death touch in round one or two.
Favorite Play of the Week: Kelvin Gastelum-Chris Curtis to Go the Distance for -186 at FanDuel
This one is a no-brainer for me. Kelvin Gastelum has been stopped only twice in 25 fights, both of which came by submission, which is something that his opponent doesn’t use at all. Similarly, Chris Curtis has only been finished twice in 39 career fights.
Gastelum should have the volume edge here, but Curtis will have the power edge. I think both fighters stay standing for 15 minutes. Curtis is also an excellent takedown defender and has a perfect 100% in takedown defense against 32 attempts.
Gastelum will probably try to use some wrestling, but I don’t think he will be successful. Both guys are very durable and can take punches on the feet. I see this fight hitting the scorecards in a very close decision either way.
