Our NRFI GOAT failed us for the first time in forever last night. So we couldn’t cash our NRFI bet.
However, if you follow me on Twitter, you got an amazing gift of me giving you a +600 Will Benson home run. And now I’m giving you EVEN MORE.
Since the home run bet cashed, it triggered our Dinger Tuesday promo where you can now get 1 week of OddsShopper Tools AND Discord for ONLY $1 — just use promo code DINGER.
You’re welcome.
For Wednesday’s NRFI bets, the books are absolute COWARDS today and priced basically everything to the point where there is no value left on either of the Pirates-Tigers games, so the pickings are slim. But I found a NRFI pick for today that I think we can roll with. And the odds might get a tad better as the day goes on, we might be able to cash out and re-bet it at better odds. We’ll see how the day shapes up.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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I’d have loved to get some coin down on either of those Pirates-Tigers NRFIs today, but when the books juiced them to -160 odds, there’s no way we can justify that. Too much chicanery can happen in a first inning to be messing around with a NRFI at -160, so we’re going to roll with a -135 bet in Seattle tonight instead.
This Astros-Mariners game has a projected total of 7 runs and features two pitchers who are a combined 13-5 on NRFIs this season in Justin Verlander and George Kirby.
Despite being roughed up in two of his last three outings, Kirby has managed to cash the NRFI in two of those three games. The only one he didn’t was on a leadoff homer against the Orioles — and they’re a different beast.
The under-the-hood numbers still look pretty good for Kirby, as the average fastball velocity is still sitting right about 96 mph, and the walk percentage is ABSOLUTELY IMMACULATE at 2.4% — that’s in the Top 1% of pitchers in all of baseball.
We know Kirby isn’t going to allow the Astros to reach base via the free , and will challenge them, which is what we like when betting a NRFI.
We especially like it when he’s pitching in his home park that minimizes runs (T-Mobile Park has the worst Park Factor for hitters over the last 3 years).
Kirby should be able to get us the three outs we need in the top half, and hand it over to Verlander for the bottom half.
The offensive struggles of the Mariners have been well documented over the course of the season, and we’ve been able to take advantage of it — but yes, I AM STILL PISSY ABOUT JP CRAWFORD’S LEADOFF HOMER THE OTHER DAY.
I mean, c’mon, man. What a joke.
Verlander enters tonight’s game having missed on his last NRFI chance but pitched one of his best overall games of the season, going 6 innings and striking out 9 batters while allowing only 1 earned run.
The Mariners strike out at a nearly 30% clip against right-handed pitching, and even though Verlander is sporting just a 21% strikeout rate this year, I think we see an uptick tonight based on the matchup tonight.
So with him having the added ability to miss some bats, I like his chances — and ours — to cash this NRFI bet tonight.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Astros-Mariners NRFI (-135 at Caesars)
