Following the end of both the NHL and NBA seasons, we set our summer sights on the MLB diamond. There are plenty of angles and edges available at Underdog thanks to the MLB pick’em tool, so let’s look at some of the MLB Underdog predictions available for tonight’s action on the diamond. There is an incredible amount of parity right now, with basically a small handful of teams out of any true running. With so many teams still technically in the buyer’s market, let’s build another 3x winner.
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Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick’em Predictions Today
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M.J. Melendez H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
One of those teams that is definitely out of it is the Miami Marlins. They face the Royals in Kansas City tonight, specifically Seth Lugo on the mound. M.J. Melendez comes off a two-walk, hitless night against Miami, and he turns around to face Yonny Chirinos, who makes his second start of the year. While it’s still another suspect arm for the Marlins against a batter with a hit in seven of his last 10 games, there’s an internal struggle for Melendez worth playing tonight.
He comes in with strong exit velocity and hard-hit percentage — reflected in his decent .318 xwOBA. Where it gets tricky is how likely the turns into a hit, and in this case it’s not great. We see this with a meager .238 xBA and know he’s struggled to turn into hits — not every time, but enough to drop that number. Thanks to the MLB pick’em tool, we find a 3% edge against the market. The implied -122 odds for lower than 1.5 total bases edges the -130 true price.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: MJ Melendez Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases
Julio Rodríguez H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
A change of scenery did not help Julio Rodriguez last night, although he technically didn’t leave the state of Florida. He’s been hitless over his last two games, the first against Miami and last night versus Tampa Bay. Rodriguez’s hits have come in bunches, but he has also fallen victim to rough stretches. He faces Zack Littell, who boasts some decent numbers, enough to disrupt a struggling hitter.
Rodriguez may simply be in the midst of a small slump, enough where the road start against a halfway decent pitcher isn’t going to break it. He wouldn’t be the only Mariner facing issues on the road, as Seattle’s home/road splits are staggering: 15 games above .500 at home and an 18-24 pumpkin when traveling.
Take Rodriguez to remain lower than 1.5 total bases. We gain a slight but profitable 3% edge against the market, as our -122 implied odds beat the -130 true odds.
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Looking for more 2023-24 MLB predictions or random data? MLB Weather Report page if you’re starting to itch for the summer months!
