Here we go with another week of baseball as the MLB trade market is in full effect. Teams are buying and selling as we hit the month of August, making it a little easier to identify some teams on the verge of checking out — at least confirming tailspins were enough to start selling. On the contrary, we find some teams hunkered down for playoff runs where every series starts to matter. Here are your top MLB Underdog pick’em predictions of the night!
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Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick’em Predictions Today
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Hunter Renfroe H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
We see some fantastic value popping from the MLB pick’em tool. Our top play is Hunter Renfroe staying lower than 1.5 total bases. Before we look at the market edge, let’s take a deeper dive into the matchup. Renfroe and the Royals are in the midst of a skid — losers of four of their last five — but he’s made decent throughout the month. Renfroe has been slapping more at the ball than driving it, as some of his advanced metrics would indicate.
The biggest challenge for White Sox starter Chris Flexen in this specific matchup is Renfroe doesn’t strike out much at all. With just a 17.2% strikeout rate, Renfroe is getting out in other ways. The good news as we fade this total bases play relies on Renfroe struggling elsewhere — specifically a .233 xBA and .298 xwOBA. The power and consistent just aren’t there enough.
The true advantage comes with the 5.4% edge we get against the market. The -122 implied odds of lower than 1.5 total bases beat the true price of -138 — this according to the MLB pick’em tool.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Hunter Renfroe Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases
Rafael Devers H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
The Red Sox look to regroup after dropping two of three to the Yankees — in Boston. It’s never easy fading a team’s top hitter, but Rafael Devers is far from invincible as we’ve seen earlier this month.
Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners open their series tonight at Fenway, making this increasingly difficult even for Devers to extend his modest hit streak to six games. Of course, there’s always the chance that Gilbert and his .229 xBA and .281 xwOBA are enough to chill out Devers at the plate. There’s the strikeout battle in effect too, with Gilbert striking out batters at 25% on the year. Devers is striking out at enough of a clip — 23.9% — to give Gilbert the edge.
OddsShopper identifies a 4.5% edge as the -122 implied odds are beating the -135 true price. That is a strong edge aimed at building a bankroll and profit over time.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Rafael Devers Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases
