Let’s end the week on a strong note with another 3x winner. Teams open one more series across the slate with the All-Star break next week. We have a couple of lopsided series, from the Athletics in Philadelphia to the Cubs in St. Louis and the Nationals in Milwaukee. It gives us plenty to choose from within some of these series, but we will still lean on the OddsShopper pick’em tool. Here are your top MLB Underdog pick’em predictions for Friday, July 12.
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Hogan Harris H/L Than 5.5 Hits Allowed
The Phillies are at home behind Ranger Suarez taking on the Oakland A’s. This is one of the most lopsided matchups on the board, especially after the Phillies never trailed in their sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies also boast the only triple-digit positive run differential across MLB. This is not an easy task for Hogan Harris. You can make as many Hogan references as you want; none of those guys are coming to save Harris. The line we have is 5.5 hits allowed, and while you may rush to slam the over at Underdog, thinking he’s going to be smashed into oblivion, hold off for one minute.
Harris may not last long enough to give up six hits. The Phillies offense is powered through… well, power. They hit doubles, homers, draw walks, and put immense pressure on opposing teams with Philly’s trio of aces. Harris got shelled once this year by the Diamondbacks where he gave up more than the 5.5 hits — 10 to be exact in 3.1 innings. He will certainly get chased tonight but 4-5 hits with half of them being home runs is plenty.
We have one more out for tonight. The Phillies just finished a massive series against the Dodgers, one that I know the Phillies had circled on their calendars leading up to it. This is a great letdown spot for Harris to sneak in and take advantage of some lefty-lefty matchups at the plate.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Hogan Harris Lower than 5.5 Hits Allowed
Bryan De La Cruz H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
We head to OddsShopper for this one as the lowly Marlins are in Cincinnati. The Reds will send Carson Spears to the mound, and we are interested in his matchup with Bryan De La Cruz. We already know through the Underdog Fantasy optimizer tool that we are gaining an edge over the market, so let’s make sure it works at the plate.
De La Cruz is one of the better hitters on one of the worst teams in baseball. His .479 xSLG stands out more than anything else on the positive front; unfortunately, that’s balanced with the 25.6% strikeout rate. His hits come in bunches, as he’s currently hit safe in three straight games — two of them with multiple hits. But we also see stretches of hitless activity marred by strikeouts.
Spears isn’t anything special, but the Marlins are atrocious winning just two of their last nine. There are plenty of chances in this small park to manufacture some hits and runs; we just don’t see De La Cruz doing anything more than a single tonight, if that.
There is a small but +EV edge to the market by staying lower than 1.5 total bases. The -122 implied odds are simply better than the -129 true odds, giving us a 2.5% edge against the market.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Bryan De La Cruz Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases
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