Let’s end the week on a positive note by cashing another 3x winner on Underdog. We will use the OddsShopper MLB pick’em tool for any guidance, as we have a full slate of baseball. Tonight features new series across the sport, including a potential World Series matchup between the Cleveland Guardians and Philadelphia Phillies. As always, we look for any exploitable matchups, specifically on the mound. Good thing we found a couple for tonight’s MLB Underdog pick’em predictions!
Editor’s Note: Want to connect with Discord and engage with fellow sports bettors!
Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick’em Predictions Today
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Jarren Duran H/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
The Red Sox and Yankees are back at it tonight in Boston. Jarren Duran leads the Sox — literally atop the lineup and faces Nestor Cortes, who is in desperate need of a bounce back. The Yankees have the better record, but this is a dog fight waiting to happen, especially with the Sox sending a volatile pitcher of their own in Brayan Bello. It’s on Cortes and any help he gets from the pen to limit Duran at the plate. That’s the goal in taking lower than 1.5 total bases, on top of this currently being the top play on OddsShopper.
Duran is the second-best hitter on this Boston team after Rafael Devers, so this is far from an easy task for Cortes. He hasn’t been brutal this year but is trying to erase the bad taste left after his last start against Tampa Bay. Duran is currently riding a nine-game hitting streak, and the public loves him to continue this tear. While not every game has cleared the above number, any players looking at the last five or 10 will jump all over the higher side.
That’s where the edge comes in according to OddsShopper. We gain a 4.7% edge because the -122 implied odds beat the -136 true price on Underdog. While it’s still a DFS pick’em site, we have implied odds like any book. We took the Yankees in the Discord and will fade Duran here.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Jarren Duran Lower Than 1.5 Total Bases
Charlie Morton H/L Than 5.5 Total Strikeouts
The Braves lost in brutal fashion last night at Citi Field. They turn to Charlie Morton tonight in Game 2 of this series. The Mets have found new life, led by surging MVP candidate Francisco Lindor, while the Braves are looking to avoid their sixth straight loss.
Two teams going in opposite directions might not be huge at this point of the season, but it plays an impact tonight. Morton faces a hot Mets team that’s been aggressive at the plate. The Braves hurler has been fine in the strikeout department — 23.7% on the season is absolutely good — but should struggle with the timing of this matchup.
Morton hasn’t been great in other areas, be it the mediocre .396 xSLG or more concerning .321 xBA. The latter is a pathway for the Mets to grind away at Morton while not chasing bad pitches. The only saving grace for Morton is the game going to extras last night and how much the pen will be used. We are willing to take that chance.
OddsShopper identifies a 2% edge — which is still an edge — as the -122 implied odds are beating the -127 true price. Once again, we combine our own analysis with a +EV price.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Charlie Morton Lower Than 5.5 Total Strikeouts
