The NBA and NHL seasons are closed for the summer, but that still leaves us with plenty of ways to profit on r, but the main focus is attacking DraftKings’ HomerFest promo — which you are going to absolutely love. Dinger Tuesday isn’t just for the blue site, as we found tremendous value on the diamond. Let’s dive in headfirst and attack some plays, making the boosts or promos work for us in the process.
If you haven’t signed up for DraftKings promo page to see which states have access to these promos.
Top 3 DraftKings Bets Today: HomerFest & Other Best Bets
Jarren Duran O/U 0.5 Home Runs
It appears other books have caught on to Dinger Tuesday. DraftKings’ promo is not capped with winnings. While we aren’t boosting anything, this “bet and get” promo is one of the best right now across every book. The days of picking a home run in a game with a high total are done. We no longer care which game nets the most bombs, as the payout features dingers across the entire slate.
Enter Jarren Duran and the Boston Red Sox. Currently riding a 14-game hitting streak, Duran is seeing the ball better right now than most everyone. The hit streak actually intensified over the past few games, with multiple hits in five straight. With just eight long balls last year, Duran wasn’t looked at as any volume power hitter, but he’s already blasted seven this year. His .351 xwOBA does a great job defining the power numbers into action, as he’s due to double last year’s tally. He also carries the best xBA (.284) for any lefty on Boston.
Let’s talk about Kevin Gausman. It’s been a rough stretch outside of the lone start against the Athletics. Even good starts haven’t transferred over into what we’ve seen from the past. He’s given up long balls in three of his last four starts — the outlier was the complete game shutout against Oakland. He’s certainly not going to make it easy on himself, and we love Duran coming in a little under the radar.
Best DraftKings HomerFest Bet Today: Jarren Duran Over 0.5 Home Runs (0.5 Units)
Jack Suwinski O/U 0.5 RBIs
We have a value alert popping off the OddsShopper +EV betting model. We get a fantastic price at +260 for Jack Suwinski to plate just one RBI tonight against the host Reds. With Suwinski totaling just six total runs batted in over the course of June, it is imperative to pick the right spots when backing the Pirates centerfielder. Suwinski isn’t always at the mercy of his own doings, as he needs fellow Pirates players to be on the bag in order to drive anyone in. They take on Hunter Greene, who has done a tremendous job in limiting quality while maintaining a 26.6% strikeout rate.
OK, so where’s the break? It’s in the market. There isn’t anything recent that would be a true indicator of what Suwinski can do tonight, as the pitching matchup and opponents change often. Instead, we look at opportunities in the batting lineup with a rare shot to go long against a hard-throwing pitcher in Greene. OddsShopper has the true odds at +243, yet we get the +260 price at DraftKings. If you take away just one thing from this play, it’s just that — we are beating the fair price in the market and nearly every other book.
Best DraftKings Bet Today: Jack Suwinski Over 0.5 RBIs (+260, 0.5 Units)
WNBA Same Game Parlay 50% Commissioner’s Cup Boost
Each of these three legs that make up our same-game parlay sits just on the other side of 0% EV. While OddsShopper doesn’t suggest playing these as solo bets — anywhere from -0.7 to -2.3% EV — we gain a massive edge with this collective 50% SGP boost, bumping it from +490 to +735 overall. The parlay boost is only good for the Commissioner’s Cup Championship between New York and Minnesota — sorry, no Caitlin Clark or Angel Reese.
We start with under 8.5 rebounds for Jonquel Jones. She’s averaging just over this number on the year at 8.8 rebounds per game but has played far and above that most recently — double-digit boards in two straight games. Minnesota presents a tougher matchup than most for the Liberty, as New York edges the Lynx by mere percentage points in defensive rebounds per game.
The pattern continues with under 9.5 rebounds for Breanna Stewart. She’s failed to hit the over in this mark in seven of 10 games played this month — including prior Commissioner’s Cup games. Stewart also hits a tougher wall of defense in Minnesota, as rebounds won’t be as easy to grab for either side. As talented as Stewart is, this isn’t the matchup to return to a 10-rebound game.
Finally, we add another under but this time in the assists market. Sabrina Ionescu is barely averaging over tonight’s assists total at 6.7 per game, yet she’s been on a recent tear setting up teammates to score. There’s some strong regression spots for Ionescu as she’s been playing above her numbers, and we like that to start tonight against Minnesota. That’s your +735 WNBA SGP using the 50% Commissioner’s Cup boost!
Best DraftKings Bet Today: +735 WNBA Same-Game Parlay — 50% SGP Boost (0.5 Units or Max Boost)
