The celebration of long balls continues with another week of HomerFest at DraftKings, with another chance to win big in the soccer and tennis worlds. Let’s get into the HomerFest pick, plus the rest of the the top 3 DraftKings bets today.
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Top 3 DraftKings Bets Today: HomerFest & Other Best Bets
Shohei Ohtani O/U 0.5 Home Runs
As stated over the past two weeks, one hit and one miss, we aren’t going to get a good number for home runs. The promo ensures that we get back $1 to $2 per home run hit across all of MLB, so we profited two weeks ago while still missing the home run play. This might be the only time where taking a bad number makes sense since the promo is there to add balance. Normally, we would scoff at the notion of getting +185 for Ohtani to go yard, knowing the true odds are +227. Sure, you could play that on FanDuel as a +EV number, but that would only get $5 back per home run hit in that game and is capped at $25.
HomerFest does it differently. We aren’t capped on long balls and can make our bet back with interest. We also aren’t beholden to just the two pitchers in tonight’s Dodgers-Phillies game, one of them being ace Zack Wheeler. Ohtani can go 0-5 tonight with four strikeouts and we can still make 1.5x our bet with enough jacks around baseball. We will take a shot here with one of the best hitters across the sport who is absolutely mashing the ball.
Ohtani’s metrics are good enough to battle any pitcher in baseball, including Mr. Wheeler. The .454 xwOBA and .331 xBA make it near impossible to pitch to Ohtani, especially in the zone. The Phillies have one of the more hitter-friendly parks in baseball, which only helps a power hitter like Ohtani. Wheeler has only four career starts against the Dodgers and boasts an ERA of 4.72, again not making it easy to pitch to Ohtani.
We ride with the All-Star hitter against All-Star pitcher, knowing Ohtani will simply be in the game longer and will get at least four chances at the plate, if not five depending on game flow.
Best DraftKings HomerFest Bet Today: Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Home Runs +185 (0.5 Units)
50% LIVE MLB Profit Boost — Boost Me, Baby!
DraftKings has an awesome live boost for any MLB game today. Once the game begins, you can place a live wager and boost the odds by 50%. The easiest thing to do is wait for the first pitch then jump on a side or total that you want boosted. We can help identify the best plays for this boost, but they are only valid once the game starts. Player prop lines can move quickly, so if you are looking to take advantage of a total bases or home run play, I’d pay attention to a game cast and wait for a break in the action.
As it stands right now, OddsShopper’s best bet at bet365 at -120. The true price for this total sits at -127 according to the OddsShopper algorithm, meaning you can play this total or even alt total — if it moves — at a price better than -127. With our 50% odds boost, we are in a fantastic spot to wait for the first pitch and boost the total. Even if this moves to 7.5, we can drop the alt total to 7.0 and boost it by 50%.
Best DraftKings Bet Today: Blue Jays-Giants Over 7.0 Runs (-112, 1 Unit)
DrawBreaker — Euro 2024
Good things come to those who wait, especially if we are fading the English national team. The Brits just haven’t looked quite right despite making it this deep into the tournament. The one thing riding for them in their favor is Netherlands looking even more underwhelming. The wild part about the English run is that they remain just one win away from a second straight trip to the final, yet they’ve looked like anything but a championship team. After knocking off the Swiss, England has a chance to show that was far from lucky as they play Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET.
The beauty of the DrawBreaker promo is we take a dog with a push in play. If the Netherlands pulls the upset (not too shocking, as they sit +215 on the 3-way), we cash the ticket. If the game is tied after 90 minutes, we get our money back. It’s a double chance with a win and push, rather than just taking one of three sides. The sample size of “good” England comes on the heels of their most recent performance, but it’s hard to ignore the talent on this team coming up short while still winning games.
Most of the backing of England seems to believe they will just win out in penalties. They were sharp against the Swiss squad, so that should carry over into tomorrow’s match. Great — I’ll gladly take my money back as opposed to losing it, so any extra time or penalty kicks results in us pushing. The Netherlands don’t have great individual talents on the team and finished below both Austria and . They don’t match up great with the English, even if England reverts back to their struggles.
This sounds exactly like every other write up before, including last week that saw England desperately claw back in the 75th minute, far from controlling the game. Maybe they woke up, but I’m not willing to take that chance. If England moves on, it’s after 90 minutes.
Best DraftKings Bet Today: DrawBreaker — Netherlands +215 (3-Way, 0.5 Units)
