The Texas Rangers earned the right to play the Baltimore Orioles by sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays, but they’ll now have to trot out their third option against Baltimore’s best option, RHP Kyle Bradish. Let’s dive into Saturday’s Rangers-Orioles odds as we make our predictions and identify the best bet for Game 1. OddsShopper’s model has identified a few other sharp bets as well.
Rangers-Orioles Game 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions | Saturday, Oct. 7
Rangers-Orioles Game 1 Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Rangers: +120 | Orioles: -142
Rangers +1.5: -175 | Orioles -1.5: +145
Over 8: -110 | Under 8: -110
Rangers-Orioles Pick & Prediction
The Texas Rangers scored a shocking two-game upset Wild Card win over the Tampa Bay Rays. They now move on to face the top-seeded Baltimore Orioles in a five-game series. The Rangers are projected to start RHP Dane Dunning in this one, and, unfortunately for the Rangers, I don’t have much faith in him. Dunning owns a 4.48 xERA (38th percentile) and a .260 xBA (25th percentile), which are both pretty rough numbers for a starter in the first game of a playoff series.
EDITOR’S NOTE (10/06/23 at 6:45 p.m. ET): The Texas Rangers announced that LHP Andrew Heaney would start Saturday’s Rangers-Orioles Game 1 after publication.
Dunning draws a matchup with a Baltimore offense that has feasted all season, especially in the early part of games. The Orioles, while only 15th in expected weighted on-base average (.319), have averaged the fifth-most runs in the first five innings (2.9). They’ve gotten in some extra rest before facing Dunning, and they’ll benefit from playing at home. Dunning held the O’s scoreless in a four-inning relief appearance earlier this year, but they had already racked up seven runs in 2.2 innings before his entrance.
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History bodes poorly for pitchers in Dunning’s situation. The MLB’s new playoff format, which was introduced in 2022, saw plenty of early runs scored in the Divisional Round — especially against Wild Card teams. Home teams averaged 3.3 runs per first five in Game 1s last year, with only one, the New York Yankees, failing to plate at least three — which even they quickly did before an out was recorded in the sixth inning. All but one Wild Card series wrapped in two games, too, so it’s not like every home team was teeing off against the visitors’ fourth starter.
Dunning isn’t confirmed as Texas’ starter, but even if he doesn’t go, the Orioles should still plate plenty of runs early. RHP Jon Gray is still on the IL, and LHP Andrew Heaney was the guy who coughed up seven runs in 2.2 innings to Baltimore this spring. Neither LHP Jordan Montgomery nor RHP Nathan Eovaldi should be expected until Sunday afternoon’s Game 2 at the absolute earliest. Look for Divisional Round history to repeat itself by backing Baltimore to record over 2.5 runs in the first five innings come Saturday afternoon.
Rangers-Orioles Game 1 Pick: Baltimore F5 Over 2.5 Runs +110 at DraftKings
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