We booked another one-way ticket to Cash City last night and swept both of our no run first inning bets AGAIN! We have now won six NRFI picks in a row; and we’re 42-28 overall on the season on our no run first inning predictions. So we’re straight cooking these yes/no run first inning bets. I’m fired up for the two bets I have today because we’re getting them at -110 or better, and we get to target a couple of pitchers who owe us some money. Let’s get after these NRFI bets for today, Tuesday, May 7.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
Los Angeles Angels vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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We’re starting off hot here with some juicy -105 value on the no run first inning bet here in this Angels-Pirates game. They mispriced this line by probably 20 to 25 points, so we have to jump on this one.
The total in this game is 8.5, which seems interesting to me. Maybe because I overvalue Angels starter Patrick Sandoval?
Maybe because oddsmakers don’t trust Pirates starter Quinn Priester … or the bullpens?
All I know is, when I see value, I go after it.
I’m not gonna sit here and blow smoke up your B-hole. I’m gonna be straight with you: Priester isn’t exactly a world-beater.
However, he’s 2-1 on NRFIs this season, and the one he lost was against a decent offense in the Red Sox. I wouldn’t classify this Angels offense as anything near the Red Sox, especially without their best hitter in Mike Trout.
Priester has pitched to a 3.31 ERA, so he has limited damage. He doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts, but he does get a LOT Of ground balls. So if he gets in trouble, he could get us a ground ball for a double play to get out of the inning.
As for Sandoval, I’m a believer. I like the way he limits hard and finds ways to get ground balls.
He’s been incredibly unlucky this season, which is highlighted by his 5.91 ERA and his 3.86 xERA. So an expected ERA two full runs lower than his actual ERA shows you he’s deserved better than what he’s been given on the surface-level numbers.
Through his seven starts, Sandoval is 5-2 on no run first inning opportunities, and the Pirates are bottom 8 in baseball in first inning scoring so far.
We’re taking the NRFI bet today in this one, especially at the good value on Caesars.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Angels-Pirates NRFI (-105, Caesars Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
Class, today we’re going to have a little show and tell. I’m going to show you two Baseball Savant Statcast data charts and tell you why we should call these guys big, fat, dirty liars and target them with a YRFI in this Brewers-Royals game.
All right, Seth Lugo, would you like to come up and take your turn for show and tell?
“Uh, yeah, this is my Statcast data, and as you can see, my xERA is 4.16, which is almost three full runs higher than my actual ERA. So one could say that I’ve been getting REALLY lucky this season.
Look, I’ve never been a pitcher that has had a home run/fly ball ratio under 10% in my life, and right now … it’s 5.7%.
You can see here in this chart that I’m in the bottom quarter of the league in whiff rate, and I don’t get a lot of strikeouts, so it’s going to catch up to me at some point.
This Brewers team is second in baseball in wOBA and third in wRC+ against RHP. There’s a real chance my ERA and home run rates will come crashing back down to earth today.”
Thank you for sharing, Seth. You can go take a seat in your dugout now.
Colin Rea, it’s your turn. How about YOU come take your turn for show and tell. C’mon. It’s OK.
“Well, kind of like Seth, my Statcast chart is … well … it’s a little icy.
My xERA (5.80) is also 3 runs higher than my actual ERA (2.67). I’ll just say it, I got stupid lucky more than a few times this season.
This Kansas City team strikes out at the second-fewest rate in baseball against right-handed pitchers. And not to mention, my catcher has a hard time throwing out runners.
So if Maikel Garcia or Bobby Witt Jr. get on base, they’re likely getting in scoring position from stealing. And I’m getting touched up for at least one run early — probably more knowing what the underlying numbers on my chart say.”
We’d like to thank both Seth Lugo and Colin Rea for presenting their charts at show and tell, which, ironically, kind of felt more like an AA meeting when they got to talking.
Either way, those numbers speak for themselves. We trust these gas cans to come crashing back down to the real turds they are. We’re going with the yes run first inning bet in this one tonight.
Let’s root for some fun tonight, and keep this train rollin’ toward 8-0, baby!
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Brewers-Royals YRFI (-110, DraftKings)
