Yesterday’s MLB props column could’ve gone better — we cashed a ticket for Sean Manaea with the help of our MLB betting model. You can even take our tools for a spin yourself for 50% off, just keep scrolling to find out how!
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MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, May 7
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: J.D. Martinez
The New York Mets will visit the St. Louis Cardinals tonight, and it’s expected to be RHP Miles Mikolas on the mound for the home team. Mikolas is an innings-eater at this point in his career, as his 5.68 ERA and 5.33 xERA suggest. He has also coughed up 7.4 expected home runs, six of which would’ve cleared the fences of his home park.
These players squared off just under two weeks ago, and Martinez mashed a double that would’ve cleared the fences at 20 ballparks, just not either Citi Field or Busch Stadium. Although Martinez is yet to hit a home run this year, he has 1.6 expected home runs.
Since ing the Mets as a late g in free agency, Martinez is slashing .273/.333/.333, which suggests he is making good but has struggled with power. However, his .434 xSLG, 90.5 mph average exit velocity and 14.3% barrel rate are all well above the league average.
It’s only a matter of time before Martinez goes yard, and it could easily be Mikolas who gives him the pitch he needs. Once Mikolas exits, Martinez will get a Cardinals bullpen that ranks tied for 12th-worst in home runs allowed (14), which also helps his case.
We’re getting Martinez to go yard at odds of +400 at FanDuel. We can also get him to tally multiple bases at odds of +110 at DraftKings. I advise adding both wagers to your card just in case he comes up short of the fences like he did against Mikolas in their last meeting.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: J.D. Martinez total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Luis Gil
The New York Yankees and Houston Astros will do battle on TBS this evening, and, even thought it hasn’t been the start Houston wanted, the Astros lead the MLB in strikeouts taken per game (6.5). Our positive expected value (+EV) to warrant a wager:
Of every sportsbook on the market, you’ll only find the under 5.5 priced at +120 on Fanatics and PointsBet; every other public book has this one trading in the +110 to +100 range. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists this one for odds of +110.
Our model identifies Gil’s under as a +EV bet because of that market disparity. But the tools really help us understand the amount of value we’re getting on this line, as we know that there’s enough +EV for a bettor with a $1,000 bankroll to wager $12.
The model works by comparing all the odds across the market and weighing them for book sharpness. With Pinnacle’s sharp odds and low hold, they stand to lose more for posting an inefficient line, so we’re getting great value by playing the -105 at Hard Rock. Even the -110 at Fanatics has +EV!
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have OddsShopper !
MLB Betting Model Pick: Luis Gil total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Estevan Florial
The model also works for home run picks, and it absolutely loves this bet for Estevan Florial tonight. Florial and the Cleveland Guardians will take on the Detroit Tigers tonight, and that means a matchup with RHP Kenta Maeda, who has coughed up 7.4 expected home runs, the most of anyone on the slate.
But while I like this play for projection-based reasons, our tools like it for market-based ones. We’re getting a massively off-market number at +750 on FanDuel.
As laid out in my writeup on FanDuel but are 17.2% at Pinnacle, which is a massive difference and more than enough of one to make up for the fact Florial has just three actual and 2.1 expected home runs to his name this season.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Estevan Florial home runs live odds page!
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