There are two no run first inning bets that are looking like good options for Wednesday, July 24, but only one can be the BetMGM, we’re getting the juice all the way down to -106 on this NRFI bet that we like for today, which is making it a no-brainer pick.
So what game are we going to for the no run first inning pick today? Let’s break it down …
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians | NRFI Bets Today
We’ve had back-to-back heartbreakers, so when that happens, we have to get back to the basics. Tonight’s Tigers-Guardians game is just that.
It’s a game that features a total of just seven runs and two pitchers that have been incredibly solid, despite a blip here or there.
Tanner Bibee gets us started as the starter for the home team Cleveland Guardians tonight, with his 3.58 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Bibee’s also rocking a 13-7 record on NRFI bets this season, which isn’t GREAT, but he did just cash his last no run first inning chance against a good Padres offense.
Bibee’s under-the-hood numbers look really good, which makes me believe he’s gotten a bit unlucky with some of these first inning slip-ups. Detroit’s is a bottom-10 offense in of wRC+ against righty arms this season, and I’m not scared off by the YRFI Bibee allowed to this team just two starts ago.
After all, he did have eight strikeouts in seven innings and allowed five hits. It’s not like he got waxed. I like Bibee to get us started off right.
And to bring us home, we have Jack Flaherty, who very well could be making his final start for the Tigers with the trade deadline looming.
Flaherty has been an absolute UNIT on NRFIs lately, cashing 10 consecutive NRFI bets, and is 13-4 overall this season on no run first inning chances.
In two starts against the Guardians this season, he’s 1-1 on NRFIs, but the one he lost was all the way back on May 6 — the last NRFI he lost this season.
All of Flaherty’s Statcast data is absurd, with percentile rankings of 94, 94 and 95 in whiff rate, strikeout rate and walk rate, respectively. He’s been lights out, and when we need to get back on track, those are the types of numbers we want to back.
As I said earlier, we’re getting back to basics tonight. So with a low total and two pitchers more than capable of shutting down any offense — and a nice 33% profit boost at BetMGM giving us a little extra yum yum — this Tigers-Guardians NRFI bet today is a no-brainer.
Best NRFI Bets Today: Tigers-Guardians NRFI (-106 at BetMGM w/ 33% Boost)
There’s a +EV bet popping from our OddsShopper market-based MLB betting model pick right now, and it’s from this very Tigers-Guardians game if you’re looking for more MLB bets, picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 24.
The over/under strikeouts prop for Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee right now is sitting at 6.5 in this matchup against the Tigers.
Currently, FanDuel is the book where you can get the best odds (-122) on this bet, which the OddsShopper model is finding value on the under 6.5 strikeouts.
It’s sitting as a top-5 positive expected value (+EV) bet in our model as of 9:15 a.m. ET.
Now, as you can see from our line shopping tool, this bet is juiced ALL THE WAY to -159 at Pinnacle Sportsbook, which is widely considered to be the sharpest sportsbook in the world.
With that type of discrepancy, it shows we’re getting pretty solid value, and a strong xWin of 56% also backs it up.
So while we like Bibee to get it done for us in the first, we’re definitely not sure he can get all the way to seven strikeouts on the night.
