I found the absolute best NRFI bet today for Thursday, July 4; and it’s a banger. We’re even getting good value on it considering it’s a game with an extremely low total in one of the best parks for no run first inning picks.
We cashed Wednesday’s NRFI bet (Mets-Nationals NRFI) for our 13th no run first inning bet win in 16 days, which puts us at 76-52 overall and +11.96 units this season.
And on top of all the money I’ve already made you on NRFI bets, I’m giving you a HUGE discount on a month of OddsShopper Discord and Betting Tools!
Until midnight tonight, it’s just $17.76 when you use promo code 1776, so if you want to come hang with me in Discord and get more of MLB bets, home run picks and just sweat these NRFIs.
Now, there’s no better way to celebrate the 4th of July than by getting another BANG on a NRFI bet, so let’s talk about where we’re going for Thursday’s no run first inning pick …
NRFI Bets Today: Best No Run First Inning Picks & Predictions
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners | NRFI Bets Today
The sportsbooks are doing us a favor by giving us the lowest-projected total game on the slate at -130 value for this NRFI bet today.
In fact, we even get a matchup of two great no run first inning pitchers on top of it today: Corbin Burnes (12-5 on NRFIs) vs. Bryce Miller (14-3 on NRFIs).
Miller isn’t the prototypical Mariners pitcher, as he is incredible with his off-speed stuff as opposed to relying on his fastball to do most of the dirty work for him. His off-speed run value ranking is 95th percentile this season, which is almost off the charts (getting 30% whiff on his slider this year).
Facing the Orioles offense is always a tough task, but if you look at the MLB Park Factors on Baseball Savant, you’ll see that T-Mobile Park is the stone worst park for offense in all of baseball.
So at least we have that going in our favor for Miller to help mitigate the potency of the Orioles offense — and we’ll take every ounce of help we can get to stymie this O’s offense when trying to secure a NRFI.
In the bottom half of the inning we’re looking at Mr. Burnes on the mound, who has cashed 11 straight no run first inning bets. That’s wild.
The Mariners offense is allergic to making against right-handed pitching and striking out a league-worst 28.7% of the time.
Burnes is sporting a 91st-percentile chase rate and a nearly 30% whiff rate this season, so it’s reasonable to expect him to be able to rack up the strikeouts here. And if he gets himself into a jam, it’s feasible he can get plenty of swings and misses to wiggle out of it.
The -130 is about as far as we’ll go for juice, but with this matchup, it still feels like value. Truth be told, it should probably be priced at -150 or worse.
Let’s cash this NRFI bet today and keep pushing our winning streak along!
Best NRFI Bets Today: Orioles-Mariners NRFI (-130 at Fanatics)
If you were looking for a bet to pair with this Orioles-Mariners NRFI, or just another bet from within this game, be sure to check out our market-based MLB betting model pick below for another +EV play!
Orioles lefty Ryan O’Hearn is sitting with a total bases prop of over/under 1.5 total bases today against Bryce Miller.
According to the OddsShopper Model, this is one of the better +EV plays from this game, as the current odds are -125 on ESPN BET. Other books like BetRivers have this bet priced in the -150 range, so it’s beating that offering by a large margin.
Our OddsShopper model shows the true odds to be -131, which allows us to gain a 2.1% positive expected value (+EV) on this bet.
The expected win rate comes in at 57%, which is a pretty strong ranking in that category.
And in a not-so-hitter-friendly park like T-Mobile Park, this definitely feels like a spot you can comfortable take the under on O’Hearn’s total bases here, especially at a decent price of -125.
