It’s been a fun season of MLB betting, so as we head into the All-Star Break, it can be disappointing not to have the wall-to-wall baseball action we’re used to having. Seriously, we’ve had at least one MLB game each day since late March. But for those fiending for some action during the pause, the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game provide some welcome respite. We’ll dive into the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby odds before getting into today’s top MLB player props and picks for it, including FanDuel’s shuffle’em contest.
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MLB Odds, Player Props & Picks for the 2024 Home Run Derby
MLB Odds for the Home Run Derby
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Pete Alonso: +280
Marcell Ozuna: +380
Gunnar Henderson: +430
Bobby Witt Jr: +470
Adolis Garcia: +480
Teoscar Hernandez: +1100
Jose Ramirez: +1500
Alec Bohm: +2100
MLB Home Run Derby Notes for 2024
Last year’s Home Run Derby was a bit of a disappointment. We were in Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, which isn’t exactly known as a hitter’s park. Per Baseball Savant’s park factors, T-Mobile Park ranks 31st, trailing even London Stadium.
This year, we’re at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. This stadium ranks seventh in park factors and is fourth in park factors for home runs. It ranks second in park factors for home runs to RHBs at 120 but is just ninth for LHBs at 110.
Also, the head-to-head format is gone — instead, the top four batters in Round 1 will advance to the semifinals.
MLB Home Run Derby Winner Pick: Marcell Ozuna
If you were hoping to see one of the MLB’s leaders in home runs, either No. 1 Aaron Judge (34) or No. 2 Shohei Ohtani (29) compete in this year’s competition, you’re out of luck. The entered batter with the most actual home runs in this year’s competition is No. 3 Gunnar Henderson (28).
But if you’re looking at just actual home runs, you’re missing half the story. Since every MLB ballpark is different, some balls that would be home runs at one end up being routine fly outs — or extra-base hits — elsewhere. That’s why we have expected home runs, a stat that considers how many ballparks a batted ball would’ve been a home run at.
Judge also leads baseball in expected home runs with 33.4, but neither Ohtani nor Henderson are the runner-up. That honor belongs to Marcell Ozuna from the Atlanta Braves. Ozuna has mashed 28.9 expected home runs this year, including 27 that would’ve cleared the fences at Globe Life Field.
Gunnar Henderson is the next-best batter by expected home runs (25.2) and expected home runs in Arlington (23), edging out Jose Ramirez (22.7 & 23), Bobby Witt Jr. (21.2 & 21), and, importantly, favorite Pete Alonso (19.6 & 19). Of course, raw volume stats don’t help us determine how efficiently these batters hit home runs, so let’s go deeper.
Ozuna has 401 plate appearances, giving him a rate of 0.072 xHR/PA. Henderson (0.058), Ramirez (0.056), Witt (0.049) and Alonso (0.047) all trail him in xHR/PA. They still do even if we adjust for Globe Life Field. All of those factors combine to make Ozuna a sharp bet in the 2024 Home Run Derby.
Best MLB Home Run Derby Pick: Marcell Ozuna to Make the Finals +180 at DraftKings
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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