We went a brutal 1-1 yesterday, cashing our Christian Yelich over (but not getting the home run) and losing our Zack Littell under. Coors Field just wasn’t popping on Tuesday, and it hurt. Oh well, we’ll bounce back with a pretty big card both in here and on Discord. Let’s dig into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wednesday, July 3. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
Fourth of July Sale: Get one month of OddsShopper for $17.76 by clicking here!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, July 3
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Julio Rodriguez
This season has been a struggle for Julio Rodriguez. After hitting 32 home runs last year (and 28 the year before), he has just seven, and it is already July. In his defense, Rodriguez remains a viable batter at the plate — his .273 xBA (77th) and .431 xSLG (61st) are evidence of that, but those numbers are both worse than the .274 and .475 he posted last year.
I feel weird about betting on a home run in T-Mobile Park, but this pick is all about the matchup. The Baltimore Orioles are turning to the veritable pumpkin that is RHP Dean Kremer. Kremer is allowing 2.03 xHR/9 over 50 IP. He made three appearances at AAA through which he gave up 4.1 HR/9.
Even if Kremer had played all of his MLB games in Seattle’s T-Mobile Park, Statcast reports that he has allowed 11 xHR there, good for a still-awful 1.98 xHR/9. Kremer is allowing a career slash line of .254/.305/.421 to RHBs like Rodriguez, including a .667/.667/1.333 line to Rodriguez himself.
This play feels a bit like backing a stoppable force against a movable object, but that just means something has to give, and I’d rather have my money on a batter with a .273 xBA than a pitcher allowing 5.49 xERA and .260 xBA. Let’s hope something clicks for J-Rod tonight — +680 to hit a home run. I’ve also got action on Rodriguez to tally multiple bases for +145 over there.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Julio Rodriguez home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Gavin Stone
The Los Angeles Dodgers are hosting the Arizona Diamondbacks this week, and it’s RHP Gavin Stone’s turn to take the bump tonight. The 25-year-old has taken major strides year-over-year, dropping his 6.40 xERA to 3.61 (62nd percentile) and improving his 14.5% strikeout rate to 19.5% (32nd).
Still, this is a tough matchup for Stone. When he last faced the Diamondbacks in May, he allowed eight hits and four earned runs over six innings pitched. The D-backs generally don’t get punched out easily, as they rank eighth in strikeouts taken per game (7.8) and strikeout rate versus RHPs (20.6%)
It’s worth noting that the D-backs have only been getting better at strikeout avoidance. Since June 1, they rank sixth in strikeout rate against RHPs (19%). Since June 16, they rank fourth (17.3%). They’re still way behind in the Wild Card race, but they’ve at least been hard to punch out.
Stone’s strikeout prop is set to 4.5, and you’ll find it trading for odds of between +106 and -129 across the market. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -109. That means the best price available, the positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
Here, the tools estimate Stone’s true odds of staying under 4.5 total strikeouts to be -103, edging the +106 by a wide enough margin. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable, and if you want to know how profitable, use our results page.
This year, our model has identified 461 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 5 or higher with at least two hours before game start. We cashed 269 of those tickets for a 15.5% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Gavin Stone total strikeouts live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
