We split on Tuesday, cashing an under for Jake Irvin but losing overs for Julio Rodriguez. I don’t know why I played him and not, you know, either Shohei Ohtani at Coors Field or Kyle Schwarber in June, so blame me for overthinking things. Still, I think we can bounce back and cash a home run ticket tonight. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Wednesday, June 19. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, June 19
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Cade Povich
The Baltimore Orioles are on the road against the New York Yankees tonight, and it’s LHP Cade Povich taking the bump for them in the Bronx. Povich has only pitched 11.1 innings in the Show, but through that sample, he owns a solid 2.75 xERA but only a 16.3% strikeout rate.
But despite his poor strikeout numbers thus far, Povich is a strikeout pitcher. He has recorded a season mark of at least 10 K/9 at every level except his final collegiate season at Nebraska, including a summer with the Savannah Bananas back in 2020 before they became baseball’s Globetrotters.
Still, this Yankees lineup isn’t easy to punch out. New York ranks 11th in strikeouts taken per game (7.9) and 13th in strikeout rate against LHPs (20.9%). With Anthony Rizzo and Aaron Judge likely out of today’s lineup, things could get a little weird, but this is still likely Povich’s toughest start to date.
Povich’s strikeout prop is trading at 4.5 across the market. You’ll find the under priced between -105 and -120 at almost every public book. However, it’ll cost you only market-based MLB betting model:
Our model calculates the breakeven point for all bets, which we call true odds, by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more. With this Povich bet, his true odds of staying under 4.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -102, which clears the price available at FanDuel but nowhere else.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
Since the beginning of this MLB season, our model has identified 782 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 3 or higher at least two hours before game start. Of those wagers, 455 won, giving us a solid 14.7% ROI. The model was 63-41 at FanDuel with an even better 20.7% ROI as well.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Cade Povich total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Yelich
There are a ton of early games today, and I’ve posted some picks in our Discord already. I’ll focus my attention on one of the later games for this pick, however — we’re backing Christian Yelich to make it two nights in a row with a home run. The lefty will take on LHP Tyler Anderson this evening, and I’m a big-time skeptic of him.
Anderson owns a steady 2.58 ERA this season, so you may be wondering why I’m so eager to fade him. Well, Anderson recorded a 5.43 ERA last year. When we look at his expected stats, it’s clear that Anderson hasn’t changed much, but his luck has: he posted a 4.96 xERA in 2023 before posting a 4.66 xERA so far this year.
Anderson also struggled with the long ball a bit in 2023. He coughed up 19.5 xHR for 1.25 xHR/9. He has been slightly better this year, coughing up 11.1 xHR for 1.15 xHR/9. Lefties slashed .265/.381/.487 with six home runs against Anderson last year and are slashing .173/.287/.407 with five this year.
Yelich hasn’t put together great at-bats against Anderson, but with the veteran pitcher’s fastball velocity steadily trending down year-over-year, the odds of Yelich sending one over the fence against Anderson continue to tick up. Even if he can’t get the job done against Anderson, the Angels’ bullpen ranks third-worst in home runs allowed (36) and second-worst in ERA.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Yelich home run live odds page!
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