It’s time to get some MLB player prop action down on another edition of MLB betting tools for a spin — or want to try out our Discord? You get week or month for 50% off… keep reading to find out how!
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, May 28
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Juan Soto
If you’re looking for a player to back on -110 at DraftKings).
The Bronx Bombers get to play RHP Griffin Canning in Angel Stadium today, which is a recipe for some good hits. Canning sports a brutal .273 xBA to go with an even worse .468 xSLG. he has coughed up 8.1 expected home runs. Lefty batsmen like Soto have owned him for a .307/.374/.561 slash line with 14 extra-base hits and seven home runs.
While Canning’s expected stats are brutal, Soto’s are impressive. He owns a .321 xBA (98th percentile) and a .668 xSLG (99th) with 16.7 xHR, including 19 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Angel Stadium. He is also slashing a dominant .306/.415/.592 against righties with 19 extra-base hits and 12 home runs.
In case you still aren’t sold on Soto, the MLB weather report calls for 7 mph winds blowing straight out along with 69-degree temperatures and 61% humidity. Just about everything is breaking Soto’s way for this matchup, and it’d be a mistake to leave him off your MLB player prop card this evening.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Juan Soto total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Tyler Glasnow
While home run picks may be the big thing on Tuesdays, we can’t let them distract us from the other MLB player prop offerings, especially not the strikeout markets. Although he has been unquestionably elite with a 33.3% strikeout rate, it’s a good idea to fade Tyler Glasnow against the New York Mets earlt this afternoon.
Glasnow is averaging 7.9 strikeouts per start, which is great, but his matchup with a Mets team that ranks 11th-best in strikeouts taken per game (8) could be an issue. That said, our positive expected value (+EV):
You’ll find Glasnow to stay under 7.5 strikeouts trading between +107 and -115 at most public books. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the under 7.5 at -118. The only places you’ll find the DraftKings.
This line renders as a MLB betting tools work by indexing the odds from across the betting market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a breakeven price (called true odds).
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Tyler Glasnow total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Elly De La Cruz
I would’ve taken Juan Soto as my pick for +520 at FanDuel) at Great American Ball Park against RHP Kyle Gibson and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Gibson, like Canning, has given up plenty of expected home runs with 7.5. Importantly, he has coughed up nine batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly stadium. His .278 xBA and .484 xSLG are both worse than Canning’s, too.
The problem is that Cincinnati doesn’t have a dominant bat to target like the New York Yankees, but Elly De La Cruz will have to do. He has mashed nine actual home runs (on only 5.9 expected — talk about luck!) with seven batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Cincinnati.
Aside from the ballpark, which leads the MLB in park factors for home runs, splits are the best argument for backing De La Cruz tonight. He is slashing .256/.348/.529 with 16 extra-base hits and eight home runs against RHPs this year. Gibson is allowing lefty bats to slash .241/.328/.466 with 14 extra-base hits and seven home runs.
While the budding star has been dependent on luck and his hitter-friendly home park this season, his .278/.397/.515 slash line at Great American might just be sustainable.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Elly De La Cruz home run live odds page!
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