Yesterday’s article went 1-1, cashing a ticket for Tyler O’Neill’s total bases but losing an under for Hunter Greene by the hook. I’m looking to go on a heater today, especially since it’s expert picks page. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Tuesday, July 23. If you’re looking for more notes, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Tuesday, July 23
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill
We’re going to run it back with Tyler O’Neill today. He didn’t deliver a home run yesterday, but he has another great chance to do so tonight in Coors Field. He’ll line up against LHP Ty Blach, who sports a 6.24 xERA (1st percentile), .314 xBA (1st percentile) and 4.9% walk rate (91st), all of which bode well for our purposes. Blach has coughed up 1.4 xHR/9 this year, including 1.5 HR/9 at Coors.
The splits are a key part of the story here. Blach, a LHP, is allowing RHBs to slash .372/.416/.578 with seven home runs. O’Neill a RHB, is slashing .318/.439/.636 versus LHPs with seven home runs. Put the two in Coors Field and we should get a dinger out of O’Neill.
Once Blach exits, O’Neill gets a Rockies bullpen that sports an MLB-high 5.65 ERA to go with the most hits allowed (412) and the 10th-most home runs (45). With last night’s game going to extras, the unit could even be more stretched than usual.
O’Neill also deserves credit as a batter. His .222 xBA (14th percentile) isn’t good, but his .486 xSLG (86th), 15% barrel rate (93rd) and 48.5% hard-hit rate (88th) are. He has also mashed 17.4 xHR on the year with 17 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Coors.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Tyler O’Neill home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Logan Gilbert
The Seattle Mariners are slumping. They’ve got a chance to bounce back against the Los Angeles Angels this series, but after the first game, it’s not looking good. It’s RHP Logan Gilbert on the mound, and while his 2.79 ERA is dominant, his 3.11 xERA suggests there is some room for regression.
Gilbert has been effective at punching out batters. His 24.8% strikeout rate (68th percentile) is solid, and he punched out nine batters against the Angels right before the All-Star Break. But we’re fading him on the strikeout market today with his total sitting at 6.5.
From a projections-based standpoint, Gilbert is averaging only 6.2 per outing, and the Angels are getting better at avoiding Ks. Los Angeles ranks 16th in strikeout rate versus RHPs (23%) and 14th since June 1st (22.2%) and 10th since July 1st (21.3%).
That said, much of our edge on this MLB player prop bet stems from a market-based approach. Gilbert clocks in at FanDuel:
To spot +EV, OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the market. It then generates a breakeven price for each bet, which we call “true odds.” Once that’s done, we can figure out how much expected value we’re getting on that bet.
With this bet, Gilbert’s true odds of staying under 6.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -131. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
Thus far, our model has identified 1,918 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 1 or higher with at least two hours remaining before game start. Of those tickets, 1,080 were winners, yielding those who tailed a nice 10.3% ROI — if you played daily, just imagine the compounding returns!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Logan Gilbert total strikeouts live odds page!
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