FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Home Run Picks & Strategy for July 23 (2024)

Starting Pitchers to Fade

by xHR/9 allowed (source):*

Landon Knack (LAD): 1.8 xHR/9
7.8 xHR in 39 IP

Alec Marsh (KC): 1.5 xHR/9
15.1 xHR in 91.2 IP

Lance Lynn (STL): 1.4 xHR/9
15.1 xHR in 96.1 IP

Stadiums to Target

by wind speed out (source):

Dodger Stadium (LAD vs. SF)
9 mph to RCF, 78° F, 56% humidity

Wrigley Field (CHC vs. MIL)
7 mph to LCF, 80° F, 62% humidity

Nationals Park (WSH vs. SD)
6 mph to CF, 88° F, 55% humidity

High-Scoring Games

by game total (source):

BOS @ COL
o11-114

SD @ WSH
o9.5-110

ARI @ KC
o9.5-110

@nd_joyce Michael Busch – CHC: +450
Full analysis below!

@is_sirois Tyler O’Neill – BOS: +330
Full analysis below!

@shanderbets Kyle Schwarber – PHI: +280

@jazzrazdfs Marcell Ozuna – ATL: +310

@EricLindquist Angel Martinez – CLE: +870

@nd_joyce Michael Busch – CHC: +450

The wind is blowing out to right field at about 10 mph at Wrigley Field tonight, and Michael Busch gets to face the living gas can that is Colin Rea.

Rea has spun three masterclasses in his last four starts but was BOMBED for seven earned runs against Pittsburgh in that stretch. Somehow, he still has an expected ERA 1.3 runs higher (5.07) than his actual ERA (3.77), and a .464 expected slugging percentage. The expected stats are telling us something must give.

Busch’s game lines up to play well in this environment tonight. He’s hitting a ridiculous .494 to the pull side and has jacked nine home runs to right field as well.

And against Rea’s top three pitches he throws against lefties (sinker, cutter, 4-seamer), Busch has slugging percentages of .429, .633 and .481, and hard-hit rates of 50%, 29.2% and 43.7%.

If you don’t want to take my word for it that this is a good bet, take the sportsbooks’ word for it. When I bet this earlier today, sportsbooks had this Michael Busch home run bet listed as high as +750 and have since dropped the odds to +450. Plus, you know we NEVER on a chance to bet against Colin Rea.

@is_sirois Tyler O’Neill – BOS: +330

We’re going to run it back with Tyler O’Neill today. He didn’t deliver a home run yesterday, but he has another great chance to do so tonight in Coors Field. He’ll line up against LHP Ty Blach, who sports a 6.24 xERA (1st percentile), .314 xBA (1st percentile) and 4.9% walk rate (91st), all of which bode well for our purposes. Blach has coughed up 1.4 xHR/9 this year, including 1.5 HR/9 at Coors.

The splits are a key part of the story here. Blach, a LHP, is allowing RHBs to slash .372/.416/.578 with seven home runs. O’Neill a RHB, is slashing .318/.439/.636 versus LHPs with seven home runs. Put the two in Coors Field and we should get a dinger out of O’Neill.

Once Blach exits, O’Neill gets a Rockies bullpen that sports an MLB-high 5.65 ERA to go with the most hits allowed (412) and the 10th-most home runs (45). With last night’s game going to extras, the unit could even be more stretched than usual.

O’Neill also deserves credit as a batter. His .222 xBA (14th percentile) isn’t good, but his .486 xSLG (86th), 15% barrel rate (93rd) and 48.5% hard-hit rate (88th) are. He has also mashed 17.4 xHR on the year with 17 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Coors.