Let’s eat! Yesterday’s article went a tidy 2-0, cashing overs for Gunnar Henderson and an under for Grayson Rodriguez. Henderson cashed his total bases ticket before swatting a home run in his third at-bat. Can we stay hot? I’ve got several picks for this evening’s action, and you can find my full card in the Discord. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Thursday, June 27. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Thursday, June 27
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Aaron Judge
Is it boring to pick a guy like Aaron Judge to go yard? Yes. Is it profitable? Well, he has at least one home run in 28 of his 80 games, so yes — as long as you’re getting him at odds north of +185 (35%). That’s what we find today with Judge’s home run prop trading for odds of +240 at BetMGM.
Math aside, this one is also about the matchup. It’s RHP Jose Berrios on the bump for the Blue Jays today. Berrios is allowing RHBs like Judge to slash .288/.330/.435 with six home runs this year. Berrios also owns a 4.77 xERA (20th percentile) and .277 xBA (12th). He’s hard to trust.
Judge is slashing .414/.486/.897 with four home runs versus Berrios across 29 at-bats. That’s all well and good if he were guaranteed to see three-plus at-bats versus the starter, but that isn’t the case. Fortunately, once Berrios exits, the Blue Jays will turn to a bullpen that leads the MLB in home runs allowed.
Bet Judge to get multiple bases (+240 at BetMGM). Even if he can’t send one over the fences while Berrios is in the game, chances are he’ll at least get a base hit or a double, of which he has eight in 29 at-bats. We’re likely getting a good number here because Judge struggled in two April series versus Toronto, but he has turned things around since then.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Aaron Judge home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Corbin Burnes
Let’s fade yet another pitcher for the Baltimore Orioles tonight as we hope for their slump to continue. It’s RHP Corbin Burnes on the bump for them today, and while Burnes sports an impressive 2.78 xERA (92nd percentile) to go with a .215 xBA (83rd), his 23.9% strikeout rate (62nd) really isn’t that notable. Burnes is getting just 8.3 K/9.
It’s a tough spot for Burnes against the Texas Rangers tonight. The Rangers rank sixth in both strikeouts taken per game (7.7) and strikeout rate versus RHPs (19.8%). It hasn’t been the World Series defense that Texas fans likely had hoped for, and the Rangers desperately need to right the ship at 37-43.
Burnes’ strikeout prop is trading at 5.5, which, in my view, is fair if the juice is stacked on the under. The under will run you between -115 and -145 at every public book, but Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -156. As a result, those -115s at positive expected value (+EV) for us to buy:
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
In this case, Burnes’ true odds of staying under 5.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -120, a number is beating the price available at FanDuel.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 1,725 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of one or higher with at least two hours before game start. An efficient 978 of those bets won, yielding an 11.1% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Corbin Burnes total strikeouts live odds page!
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