Sunday’s MLB slate will provide us with plenty of early action and a lot of starting pitchers to target. The slate includes five pitchers with a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of -0.5 or worse. It could be a hitter’s paradise out there! Let’s dive into today’s MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Sunday, June 2.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, June 2
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Jake Bauers
The best hitter’s matchup of the day belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers, who face embattled rookie starter Nick Nastrini at American Family Field on Sunday afternoon. The Brewers have been one of the best offenses in MLB and will look to tee off on Nastrini, who has had a rough go in his first taste of major league action.
Bauers snapped out of an 0-for-17 mini-slump with two hits on Friday evening and will look to keep the momentum going on Sunday against Nastrini. Bauers has batted just .206 this season, but he’s put up better numbers at home, with an OPS 130 points higher at American Family Field than on the road.
Nastrini just hasn’t shown the skills of a major league pitcher so far, plain and simple. His fastball is his best weapon, but it hasn’t generated enough swings and misses, with just a 4.7% swinging-strike rate on the pitch.
He’s delivering his changeup to lefties at a 30% clip and they’re just teeing off on it, batting .375 against the pitch with a .429 BABIP. And if Bauers doesn’t get an extra-base hit against Nastrini, the White Sox bullpen has ranked in the bottom 6 in the MLB in several categories, allowing 108 earned runs and 29 home runs this season.
This is a perfect spot for Bauers to stay hot against the worst right-handed starter on the slate. We’re banking on the lefty to record at least two total bases (+180 on BetRivers), and his home run prop (+500) is tempting as well.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Jake Bauers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+180 at BetRivers)
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Jarren Duran
The Boston Red Sox take on the Detroit Tigers on Sunday afternoon at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are looking to take three out of four games from the visiting Tigers and will face off against Casey Mize in the matinee. Duran finished with two hits, including a double, on Saturday, but according to our MLB betting model, he is expected to struggle on Sunday.
Duran’s total bases under is trading at odds of between +120 and -115, a fairly wide disparity between most public books. BetMGM has the best posted odds, listing Duran under 1.5 total bases at +120, creating a +EV opportunity for bettors.
As of last night, our MLB betting model had an absurd 14.4% ROI on all MLB strikeout props with an OS Rating of 3 or higher wagered two hours before game start. Those numbers are from a 710-bet sample. Trust the process.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Jarren Duran Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120 at BetMGM)
MLB Home Run Pick Today: C.J. Abrams
It’s been a rough stretch for Abrams, who is in the middle of an 0-for-14 slump, including eight strikeouts in that span. But there’s no better slump-buster than Carlos Carrasco.
Abrams will face Carrasco in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon in Progressive Field, which has played much more like a hitter’s park this season than in previous years. Though Progressive is ranked in the bottom 5 in park factor on a three-year rolling basis, in 2024 alone Progressive ranks as the sixth-best hitter’s park in Major League Baseball.
Abrams was pulled as a late scratch from Saturday’s game, which hopefully cleared the young shortstop’s head and allowed him a chance to get some extra work in the batting cage in preparation for Sunday. Carrasco is the perfect get-right matchup for Abrams, sporting a 5.16 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP and nearly 1.5 home runs per nine innings.
I’m locking in Abrams for multiple bases (+115 at BetRivers).
Abrams may be in a funk, but he’s one of the most improved hitters in baseball this season and should be able to capitalize on an aging veteran who has been below average.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: C.J. Abrams (+600 at BetRivers)
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