We successfully went 2-0 on Friday, cashing a Bryce Miller under and a Yordan Alvaraz total bases over. Alvarez didn’t go yard for us, though, so I’d like to get another home run pick correct today. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, June 8. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, June 8
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Roddery Munoz
The Cleveland Guardians visit the Miami Marlins this evening, and it’s RHP Roddery Munoz on the mound for the fish. In 15.2 innings pitched this season, Munoz has coughed up 5.2 expected home runs and owns a 7.32 xERA. He still managed five or more strikeouts in each outing, but we’re betting on him to stay under 3.5 tonight.
It’s possible that Munoz gets shelled and is pulled early. But even if that doesn’t happen, the 24-year-old must contend with a Guardians lineup that ranks fifth in strikeouts taken per game (7.5), far better than the three other teams he has started against (the Dodgers, Rockies and Cubs). Cleveland also ranks fourth-best in strikeout rate versus RHPs (18.9%).
Munoz’s odds of staying under 3.5 strikeouts vary from -125 to -155 across the public books. However, Pinnacle, a sharp book, has the same wager at -188. Both the market-based MLB betting model:
The tool works by estimating a breakeven point for all bets (called true odds). It does so by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more. In this case, we see the true odds are -137, meaning the lines on FanDuel are too good to up
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. But how profitable, you ask? You can see for yourself on our results page. Over a 754-bet sample for total strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 3 or higher two hours before game start, 462 bets won, yielding a 13.8% ROI. The model found 33 winners at BetRivers for a 5.5% ROI and 59 at FanDuel for a 20.1% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Roddery Munoz total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson
This is a great spot to back the Baltimore Orioles and Gunnar Henderson. It’s a road game against the Tampa Bay Rays, but they’re starting Taj Bradley, which bodes well for batters like Henderson. Bradley is giving up a .263 xBA (24th percentile) and a .577 xSLG with 6.3 expected home runs in just 26.1 innings pitched — good for 2.2 expected home runs per nine.
Bradley, a righty, has been awful against both same- and opposite-handed batters this year, but he walks lefties less. They’re slashing .268/.317/.518 against him through a 56 at-bat sample that includes seven extra-base hits and three home runs, and, importantly, only three walks.
Although Tampa Bay is usually known for strong pitching, that hasn’t been the case this year. Once Bradley exits, it’s up to a bullpen that ranks seventh-worst in total hits allowed (225) and second-worst in total home runs allowed (34) to stop Henderson. That’s a recipe for disaster.
I’m probably stating the obvious when I say that Henderson is a stud, but let’s go through some numbers to back that up. His .280 xBA (83rd percentile) and .541 xSLG (95th) speak to his consistency at the plate. He also sports a .251/.337/.569 slash line against righties, which includes 22 extra-base hits and 15 home runs. Let’s buy him for multiple bases (+375).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson home run live odds page!
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