Yesterday’s article went a resounding 2-0, cashing an under for Colin Rea (0/3.5 strikeouts!) and an over for Joc Pederson (5/1.5 total bases — with a home run at +300!). Can we roll the momentum forward into tonight? I think so. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, June 22. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
Need more MLB betting action? Check out our MLB player prop betting!
MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, June 22
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Tommy Henry
We’re looking at today’s battle between the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks for our first prop. Joc Pederson delivered for us from the D-backs yesterday, but we’re fading one of his teammates, LHP Tommy Henry, in this spot. Henry has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the MLB this season.
A quick look at Henry’s Statcast profile reveals serious issues: his 6.32 xERA (2nd percentile) and .295 xBA (4th) are huge red flags. Sure, it’s only a sample of 34.2 IP, but his recent form is atrocious. Since his return to the majors in June, Henry owns a 9.95 ERA over 6.1 IP with four total strikeouts and three home runs allowed.
Henry’s strikeout prop is set to 3.5, which seems reasonable on its face, but Henry’s inability to last longer than five innings and overall inefficiency point to a range of outcomes favorable for the under. The Phillies are a pedestrian 16th in strikeouts per game (8.3) and even have the eighth-worst K% versus LHPs (23.2%), but we’re still trusting them here.
You’ll find the under 3.5 trading for odds between +140 and +110 at every public book. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging +107 for this one. With more books on the +120 or shorter side of things, the market-based MLB betting model:
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
In this example, Henry’s true odds of staying under 3.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be +122 (45%), a number is beating the price available at the aforementioned books.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has found 797 bets with an OS Rating of three or higher with at least two hours before game start. A whopping 466 of those bets won, yielding a nice 15.4% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Tommy Henry total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Yelich
The Milwaukee Brewers remain are still out West to play the San Diego Padres, and we’re targeting Petco Park with today’s home run pick. While that’s usually a poor choice, as Petco Park ranks 28th among regular MLB venues in park factors, it’s a less-terrible 14th for home runs. It helps that the Padres will trot out a veritable pumpkin tonight in RHP Randy Vasquez.
I’m not sure what Vasquez would need to do to lose his spot in the rotation because he probably should have already. He sports a 6.48 xERA (1st percentile) and .331 xBA (1st). He is actually pretty good at one thing, limiting walks, as he sports a 4.7 BB% (91st), but that actually helps us with batter props.
Vasquez is coughing up 1.9 xHR/9, and if he played every game in Petco Park, he’d be coughing up 2.1 HR/9. Opposite-handed batters have been the issue for him, as they’re slashing an absurd .465/.506/.732 against him with nine extra-base hits and five home runs in 71 at-bats.
As a result, we’re targeting LHB Christian Yelich tonight. It hasn’t been a perfect season for him, but his .294 xBA (94th percentile) and .446 xSLG (68th) make him an appealing target versus Vasquez. Yelich has only mashed 5.3 xHR on the year, but he has 6 xHR in Petco Park, so I recommend playing him for multiple bases (+525 at BetMGM).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Yelich home run live odds page!
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
