We split 1-1 yesterday, cashing our Chris Flexen under easily but losing our Vladimir Guerrero Jr. overs. After cashing back-to-back home run picks for Shohei Ohtani early in the week, we haven’t cashed in on another dinger, and I’m looking to change that tonight. Let’s dive into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, June 15. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, June 15
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yoshinobu Yamamoto
The Kansas City Royals are on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers again tonight, and it’s RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto up in their rotation. While Yamamoto has been excellent this year, posting a 28.3 strikeout rate (83rd percentile) and 3.18 xERA (78th), the books are a bit too bullish on him today.
Yamamoto’s strikeout prop is trading at a lofty 6.5. He is averaging just under 6.4 strikeouts per start, and while that number is unfairly depressed by his one-inning debut in South Korea, it’s not like he routinely flies by the 6.5 — since the start of May, Yamamoto is averaging 6.6 strikeouts per start.
The Kansas City Royals are a tough team to punch out. They rank third in strikeouts taken per game (6.9), and while a lot of that has to do with their incredible efficiency at home, they still rank eighth in strikeouts taken per game on the road (7.9). They’re also third in strikeout rate against RHPs (18.7%).
The under 6.5 is trading at odds between -160 and -186 where available. Many other public books only have the under 5.5 available, with that priced between at +125 and +110. But we can get the under 6.5 for an outlier market-based MLB betting model:
Our model calculates the breakeven point for all bets, which we call true odds, by indexing the odds from across the market and adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more. For this bet, the true odds of Yamamoto staying under 6.5 total strikeouts are estimated to be -145, edging out the price available at FanDuel.
Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
The model has identified 1,613 total strikeout props with an OS Rating of 1 or better with at least two hours before game start. A whopping 906 of those bets won, returning a 10.3% ROI. The model is 124-79 at FanDuel in that sample, good for an 18.8% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson
The Baltimore Orioles will host the Philadelphia Phillies and struggling RHP Taijuan Walker today, making it a great spot to target leadoff slugger Gunnar Henderson. While Walker is allowing LHBs to slash .330/.388/.568 this year, Henderson is slashing .263/.346/.597 versus RHPs with 27 extra-base hits and 17 home runs.
There’s more to this pick than just handedness splits, though — expected stats are a key part of my home run betting strategy, and they’re illustrative here. Walker is coughing up a .275 xBA to go with a .524 xSLG. He has surrendered 10.1 xHR, including 10 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Camden Yards.
Meanwhile, Henderson owns a .276 xBA (81st percentile) to go with a .532 xSLG (94th). Those numbers suggest his absurd slash line against RHPs can be sustained. Further, Henderson has mashed 19.3 xHR, including 20 batted balls that would’ve counted as home runs in his home park. He enters tonight’s game in good form, too, with a hit in his last eight games and a .360/.429/.720 slash line over the last seven.
I’m getting action on Henderson to both go yard (+105 at BetMGM). While I am concerned about the wind blowing in today — and Philadelphia’s solid bullpen once Walker exits — I’m optimistic that Henderson can at least get an extra-base hit off the Phillies’ struggling starter.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson home run live odds page!
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