Saturday’s MLB slate will provide us with plenty of early action and a boatload of high-quality starting pitchers. In total, we have five starters taking the mound today with an xERA that ranks in the 90th percentile or higher. Even though there will be plenty of good spots for unders, there are a few pumpkin pitchers worth fading, too. Let’s dive into today’s MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, June 1.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, June 1
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Logan Webb
A quick look at tonight’s matchup between the New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants may lead you to have more confidence in the home team’s starter than is warranted. Veteran RHP Logan Webb and his steady 2.74 ERA will take the mound today, but the expected metrics suggest his efficient start to the year hasn’t been so efficient:
Webb sports a 4.65 xERA, which is 1.91 earned runs higher than his actual ERA through 12 starts. So what’s going on here? It’s likely a combination of two factors: (a) good luck and (b) his pitcher-friendly home park.
I don’t have much to say about (a), but (b) is laid bare by Webb’s home-away splits — he owns a 1.03 ERA at home and a 4.34 ERA on the road. Notably, he also averages just 5.9 K/9 at home with 9.2 K/9 on the road.
Webb will benefit less than usual from his home park tonight as the MLB weather report calls for 16 mph winds out through right-center field along with 60-degree temperatures and 72% humidity. Oh, and the Bronx Bombers, who rank eighth in strikeouts taken per game (7.7) and first in xwOBA (.347) are coming to town.
This is a potential implosion spot for Webb. But even if he doesn’t get knocked out of the game early, New York’s talented cast of bats and Webb’s inability to punch batters out at home should help him stay under 4.5 total strikeouts.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Logan Webb total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Ben Lively
The Cleveland Guardians will start RHP Ben Lively against the Washington Nationals this afternoon, and while the Nats aren’t great, they’ve been surprisingly plucky. They also rank 13th in strikeouts taken per game (8.2) after ranking second last season (7.1). Lively and his 23.8% strikeout rate (60th percentile) are in for a bit of a test in this spot, and the under on his total strikeout prop is trading with MLB betting model:
You’ll find Lively trading at odds of between -150 and -169 to stay under 5.5 strikeouts at most public books, but Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this wager priced at a far less friendly -189. DraftKings are hanging the off-market -145.
As of last night, our MLB betting model had an absurd 14.4% ROI on all MLB strikeout props with an OS Rating of three or higher wagered two hours before game start. Those numbers are from a 710-bet sample. Trust the process.
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Ben Lively total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr.
Yep, Bobby Witt Jr. is a real AL MVP candidate this season, trading behind only Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. He is also a great player to target on the MLB player prop markets tonight, especially as a candidate to hit a home run.
Witt takes on RHP Joe Musgrove and the San Diego Padres tonight. It’s a home game for the Royals, so Musgrove won’t benefit from his pitcher-friendly home park, where his awful 5.66 ERA dips slightly to 5.26. Musgrove owns a 6.94 ERA on the road and has allowed 17 hits and one home run over 11.2 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Witt thrives in Kansas City and when facing RHPs. His already impressive slash line (.315/.368/.549) ticks up against same-handed pitchers (.325/.382/.557) and in his home park (.372/.434/.708). Witt also has seven home runs versus RHPs and six home runs at home. He also owns a whopping 13 expected home runs.
I’m backing Witt to record multiple bases (BetRivers promo code to see if you can take advanage of their bonuses!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Bobby Witt Jr. home run live odds page!
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