Yesterday’s article easily cashed both slips, with Jonathan India going yard in his first at-bat (cashing the total bases part of the bet, too) and Hogan Harris struggling to accumulate strikeouts. Those winners helped the full card, which you can find on expert picks page, turn a profit. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Saturday, July 13.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, July 13
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Walker
Can we stay hot and run it back with another home run tonight? I think so. Let’s trust RHB Christian Walker at his home park against the Toronto Blue Jays. Walker has mashed a team-high 23.1 expected home runs this year, including 22 at Chase Field, where the forecast calls for temperatures in the high-100s. I trust him for multiple bases and a home run in this spot.
Walker’s .253 xBA (50th percentile) may not jump off the page, but his .503 xSLG (90th) should. His 75.2 mph bat speed (92nd), 91.2 mph average exit speed (80th) and 16.1% barrel rate (96th) all demonstrate just how elite of a bat Walker can be.
The D-backs will take on RHP Jose Berrios tonight, who has allowed 21 actual and 16.9 expected home runs (including 17 expected home runs at Chase Field). Berrios has struggled against RHBs, allowing them to slash .283/.325/.439 with eight home runs.
Walker is slashing .253/.339/.513 against RHPs this year with 32 extra-base hits and 18 home runs. He doesn’t have a hit in a two at-bat sample against Berrios, but I have faith he’ll get one here. Once Berrios exits, Walker gets a Blue Jays bullpen that has allowed the most home runs (57) and the 12th-most hits (309).
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Christian Walker home run live odds page!
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Nathan Eovaldi
The Texas Rangers will visit the Houston Astros this evening, and it’s RHP Nathan Eovaldi on the bump for them in this spot. The 34-year-old has been excellent this season, recording a 6-3 record and 3.10 ERA. The expected numbers are a bit less friendly, with his 3.68 xERA (60th percentile) and .239 xBA (56th) a slight tick worse.
Let’s fade Eovaldi on the strikeout market in this spot. His 24.6% strikeout rate (68th) is a tick up from last year (22.9%) and the year before that (22.4%), so I’m expecting some regression from him anyway. The Astros are a tough team to punch out, too, with them taking the third-fewest strikeouts (6.9) and the second-lowest strikeout rate versus RHPs (18.6%).
You’ll find Eovaldi’s strikeout prop set to 5.5 today, which is fair, but the odds vary significantly depending on the book you use. The under 5.5 will cost you between -105 at Hard Rock and -143 at BetRivers, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, charging -135. With the market consensus much closer to -135 than -105 range, the number at Hard Rock offers loads of positive expected value (+EV):
OddsShopper’s betting model indexes the odds from across the sports betting market in order to generate a breakeven price for each bet, called “true odds.” Once we’ve done so, we can estimate how much value we’re getting relative to that point.
With this bet, we can see that Eovaldi’s true odds of staying under 5.5 total strikeouts are estimated at -115. The -105 we’re getting clears that by a healthy margin, and only the -110 at ESPN BET does as well. Our back-tested simulations reveal that bets like this one have been profitable. If you want to know how profitable, you can see for yourself on our results page:
This year, our model has identified 1,525 strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 5 or higher with at least two hours until game start. We cashed 882 of those tickets on our way to an absurd 13.3% ROI, including a 12.5% ROI at Hard Rock!
MLB Player Prop Pick: Nathan Eovaldi Under 5.5 Strikeouts -105 at Hard Rock
For the best price currently available, check out our Nathan Eovaldi total strikeouts live odds page!
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