Although we lost our Reynaldo Lopez under, we cashed total base and home run bets for Jarren Duran in his first at-bat, securing a profitable day for us in the MLB. That said, it could’ve been even better for us, and I’m not satisfied with a split. Let’s get into today’s top MLB player prop picks and home run bets for Friday, June 7. For more notes on today’s action, check out my slate breakdown on X.
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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Friday, June 7
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Bryce Miller
The Seattle Mariners will visit the Kansas City Royals tonight, and it’s RHP Bryce Miller’s turn in the rotation. The second-year phenom is 5-5 with a 3.18 ERA, but his 4.08 xERA (40th percentile) suggests his hot start isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. Notably, though, Miller has increased his strikeout rate from 22.2% (40th) last year to 25.7% (71st) this year.
This spot is a great one to fade Miller. For one, his strikeout rate crashes to 18.7% on the road, where his record is 1-3 and his ERA is 4.76. For another, the Royals rank second in strikeouts taken per game (7.1) and first at home (6.1). They are also fourth in strikeout rate versus RHPs (19.1%).
You’ll find Miller’s strikeout prop set to 4.5 with the under trading between -109 and -132 at the public books. That -110 at DraftKings:
Our tool works by breaking down the odds from across the market to estimate a bet’s true odds (its breakeven price). In this case, the under 4.5’s true odds are -113, meaning we’re getting a deal on this bet at DraftKings but nowhere else. Our back-tested simulations show that bets like this one are profitable over the long term. That said, only play this line if you’re beating the true odds — otherwise, it’s not a +EV bet.
But how profitable have bets like this one been this year? Let’s take a look at our results page, which you’ll get access to as well with a subscription. Over a 1,538-bet sample for total strikeout bets with an OS Rating of 1 or higher two hours before game start, 863 were winners, good for a 10% ROI. Caesars ed for 38 winners and a 17.3 ROI; DraftKings for 81 and a 13.4% ROI.
MLB Player Prop Pick: Bryce Miller total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez
I struggled to find anyone worth betting on to hit a home run today. RHP Bryce Miller would be a good fade in a better ballpark. The same is true for RHP Joe Ryan and LHP Logan Allen. Ultimately, I feel comfortable about taking a chalk play in Yordan Alvarez against RHP Griffin Canning.
Canning has the worst xERA (4.91) and xSLG (.467) on today’s slate. He has also coughed up 11 actual and 10.1 expected home runs on the year, including one to Yordan Alvarez in Houston. While that ball wouldn’t have cleared the Angel Stadium fences, Alvarez will benefit from 8 mph winds blowing straight out, per the MLB weather report.
Canning has struggled against opposite-handed batters, coughing up a slash line of .302/.367/.568 to them with 19 extra-base hits and nine home runs. Meanwhile, Alvarez has been solid against opposite-handed pitchers, slashing .263/.351/.493 with 17 extra-base hits and nine home runs. He slashed .292/.419/.625 against them last year with 38 extra-base hits and 25 home runs.
I’m backing Alvarez to go yard (-110 at BetRivers). He went yard in his last matchup with Canning and should be able to take advantage of the struggling pitcher again this evening. We’re getting just enough value on both markets to warrant spreading a unit between the two.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez home run live odds page!
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