My favorite part about pinch hitting for this column is how Isaiah Sirois breaks down the multiple uses of the OddsShopper MLB betting tools.
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MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Wednesday, May 1
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Andy Pages
The Dodgers-Diamondbacks game certainly started off with an interesting twist, but once they cleared out the bees it was business as usual — at least for the home team as it looks to take another one from Los Angeles, sending Jordan Montgomery to the mound.
Andy Pages was called up to the Dodgers lineup in the middle of April and has a decent number to attack tonight for total bases. He’s cleared this total in six of 13 games in April and now faces Montgomery on the road. It’s easy to see Pages fade a bit in this star-studded lineup, but he’s been a product of variance as much as anything.
We get a good edge against the market, as the best price for under 1.5 total bases is -127 at Caesars Sportsbook. This significantly beats the true market price of -149 on OddsShopper. This s for a 6.8% EV edge, which is key in building a bank roll over time.
Pages hasn’t struck out a bunch but hasn’t walked either; he’s going to have to work some counts against Montgomery. We’ve seen some pop from Pages with his bat, but it’s still a small sample size. Montgomery isn’t striking out batters at a high clip, but his .286 xwOBA is enough to back.
We get a great price that beats the true odds on an unproven player taking on a decent pitcher at home. That is a solid set of circumstances to back this market-based approach, ultimately knowing we are betting a +EV price.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Andy Pages Under 1.5 Total Bases (-127 at Caesars)
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Jose Butto
The New York Mets have climbed back into relevance in an already weak NL East with some thanks to players like Jose Butto. It’s still a short sample size of the season, and Butto has more than likely pitched incredibly above his norms — due to regress as early as tonight. The Cubs send Shota Imanaga to the hill looking to take the third game in this four-day set. Thursday is a getaway day with an early start, so expect the Cubs to go right at Butto.
Right away we get a fantastic price fading Butto’s 5.5 strikeout total: -110 at MLB betting tools, finding +EV spots in the market to attack.
Butto is showing signs of leaking oil after two strong starts to the season. It’s been more of a knock around game for opposing hitters, taking advantage of Butto’s 90 exit velocity and 50% hard-hit percentage. Even the 27% strikeout rate is somewhat mitigated by his 13% walk rate and concerning .347 xwOBA.
This is a prime spot for the Cubs to chase Butto from the mound, keeping his start short and the Mets down. Play the under.
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MLB Betting Model Pick: Jose Butto Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts (-110 at BetMGM)
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Teoscar Hernandez
The day after Dinger Tuesday can leave people chasing some bad numbers. Even if you made your bet back in bonus money, it’s still vital to shop these long shot type plays. We get that opportunity with Teoscar Hernandez tonight against Montgomery and the Arizona Diamondbacks.
We anticipate no two-hour delay due to any bee- or insect-related issues, allowing the Dodgers to swing away on Montgomery. The Dodgers made a major splash this offseason by g Shohei Ohtani to an already beefed-up lineup. Ohtani is currently the only Dodger with a higher exit velocity and hard-hit percentage than Hernandez.
Teoscar is tearing the cover off the baseball. With six dingers already on the campaign, a lower launch angle hasn’t hurt him. We get a fantastic price from FanDuel.
That’s step one in securing profit, especially with bets where a +430 play is on the shorter side.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Teoscar Hernandez To Hit a Home Run (+430 at FanDuel)
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