It’s another full-slate Sunday in the MLB with all 15 teams in action, starting at 1:35 p.m. EST. Start your day by getting some skin in the game with a pair of player props and one bet from our +EV betting tools I’ve been using to line my pockets for the last few weeks, you can get them for 50% off — keep scrolling to see the exclusive coupon code!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Pick Today: Sunday, May 5
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Alex Call
The Washington Nationals are one of the most prolific teams in the majors when it comes to running on the basepaths. The Nats have proven over the past two years that they want to turn nearly every game into a track meet, especially when they feel like they have a pitcher-catcher matchup that they can exploit. On Sunday, the Nationals will face Alek Manoah in his first major league start since last August, and either Danny Jansen or Alejandro Kirk will be behind the plate. Neither catcher plays inspiring defense, and both have allowed several base-stealers to run wild this season.
The Toronto catchers rank outside the top 30 among MLB catchers in pop time with Jansen clocking in at 1.96 and Kirk coming in at 2.01, meaning that these catchers are both slow to deliver the ball to second base. Neither have earned the respect of opposing teams either, as opponents have attempted a combined 20 stolen bases against the pair.
Call swiped his first bag of the season earlier in the season, running successfully on Jansen and reliever Genesis Cabrera. With odds listed as high as +650, Call is a value play on most books. The Washington Nationals are going to run when they get the opportunity, ranking second in the MLB with 56 stolen bases this season. The sportsbooks have noted this as well, with the Nationals’ premier base stealer C.J. Abrams listed as low as +150 in some places.
Though Call isn’t the most prolific base-stealer on the Nationals’ squad, his long odds and potential to run in this matchup make him an ideal bet for Sunday’s action.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Alex Call stolen bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Anthony Santander
The Baltimore Orioles will look to complete a sweep against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ballpark on Sunday afternoon, and Anthony Santander has a prime matchup. Though Nick Lodolo has looked solid so far this season, the lanky lefty has had home run issues in the past, especially at home. Lodolo sports a 1.53 HR/9 over his career, and Santander has recorded hits in two of his three at-bats against him. OddsShopper’s positive expected value (+EV):
As the model shows, the +350 at FanDuel is far and away the best odds offered on Santander’s home run prop this afternoon. No other public books list this bet for any better than +250, creating at least a +100 discrepancy, while the true odds are listed at +282.
So how does our model draw that conclusion? It draws in the odds from across the sports betting market; adjusts for hold, book sharpness and other factors; then generates a breakeven price (called “true odds”) for each bet.
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MLB Betting Model Pick: Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+350 at FanDuel)
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Taylor Ward
The Los Angeles Angels will finish off their series in Cleveland with a game against the Guardians this afternoon. The Angels have lost seven of their last 10 games and are looking for a win in Sunday’s rubber match after splitting the first two games of the series with Cleveland.
Taylor Ward is likely to be batting in the top third of the Angels’ lineup as they face the aging Carlos Carrasco. As great of a story as Carrasco’s comeback has been, he’s not the same pitcher he once was. Over his last nine innings, Carrasco has allowed five home runs, including two bombs in his last start against the Houston Astros. Unless Carrasco has made serious corrections since his last two starts, he’ll still be susceptible to the longball against the Angels today.
Several of the projections-based factors I consider (check out our home run betting strategy guide for more) favor Ward to hit one out today.
Ward hasn’t left the yard since April 24, but his 33.6% hard- rate and his 34.8% ideal plate appearance rate indicate that he is seeing the ball well this season. Ward is barreling the ball at a career-high 13.9% so far this year as well. He’s listed as high as +575 at BetMGM, making him quite the value today as well.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Taylor Ward total home runs live odds page
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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