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MLB Player Props & Home Run Picks Today: Sunday, July 14
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Willy Adames
Adames may be the Brewers’ leading RBI man, but that comes from where he is in the batting order at least as much as it does from his own power. For reference, he hits directly behind two All-Star starters in Christian Yelich and William Contreras, who are also two of the leading on-base guys at their position in all of baseball.
Individually, Adames is only slightly above league average as a power threat. His slugging is .413 and his OPS+ 105 — averages are .396 and 100. For the full season, Adames has multiple total bases in only 34 of 96 games, which is 35.4%.
The matchup doesn’t help given that Nationals starter Jake Irvin has been lights out (at least prior to his last start). He is also holding righties to a slash line of .3192/.220/.298, indicating he is allowing neither hits nor power.
Above all that, however, the market is pointing fully towards the under here.
OddsShopper calculates the true odds at -127, so anything better than that beats the breakeven point of profitability for this bet. Most books are beating those true odds, with BetMGM coming in the best at -110.
This discrepancy between BetMGM odds and true odds leads to a 7.0% positive edge and an OS Rating of 12. And in 2024, total bases props with OS Ratings of 10 or higher are winning 63% of the time and leading to 5.9% ROI overall. Basically, if you tailed every such total bases prop this year, you would be up over $40,000!
Over a large sample, bets like this one will transform your bankroll. Not every bet will win, but we have the results and back-tested simulations to show our model is worth it.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Willy Adames Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110 at BetMGM)
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Bet Today: Gunnar Henderson
Can anyone explain why the guy with the second-most home runs in the American League is +700 to go deep today? I get it’s a lefty-lefty matchup, but still.
Sure, Henderson has been slumping a bit the last couple weeks. Only one of his 27 home runs this season came in the last 14 days, and he is slugging a modest .380 in that span.
And yes, Henderson also has fairly dramatic splits against lefties, dropping his slugging and OPS by nearly 200 points compared to those against righties. But keep in mind that Henderson’s splits versus right-handed pitching are MVP-level, elite of the elite numbers; his splits against lefties are still pretty decent — .464 slugging, .832 OPS — and he has hit five home runs in these matchups as well.
Carlos Rodon has also been hittable, to say the least, over the last month and change. He has allowed a home run in four straight starts, two-plus in three of those four and three homers in one of them. As far as lefty-lefty matchups go, Henderson could do a lot worse than Rodon.
The public agrees, by the way, because the odds are moving pretty fast. Caesars had this at +750 not even an hour ago, and now it’s the only book you can even get it at +700. Lock it in while Henderson is being treated like he’s not a Home Run Derby favorite.
MLB Player Prop & Home Run Pick Today: Gunnar Henderson live odds page!
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