We didn’t get our total bases from Ronald Acuna Jr. or Marcell Ozuna yesterday, which sucked, but we did cash an under for LHP Garrett Crochet, and it’s not like backing some Braves bats was a bad idea (shout-out Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Harris II). I’m hoping to bounce back today with a few picks, including one home run pick and one bet from our MLB betting model — which you can now get for 50% off, keep reading to find out how!
Looking for more sports betting picks and analysis? Check out our home run betting strategy may be of assistance.
MLB Player Prop Bets & Home Run Picks Today: Saturday, April 20
MLB Player Prop Bet Today: Yordan Alvarez
I’m in love with this spot for Yordan Alvarez for several reasons. For one, backing him to go over 1.5 total bases is trading with positive expected value (+EV) in our betting model (at least for the +100 on ESPNBet). For another, Alvarez draws a favorable matchup against struggling RHP Trevor Williams, a pitcher he has gone yard against previously.
Alvarez is slashing a solid .272/.366/.494 this year, slightly worse than what he slashed last year (.293/.407/.583), but his .335 xBA and .698 xSLG suggest his current slash line is on the lower end of where it should be.
The matchup against Williams is extra important to note because Alvarez is a lefty, giving him a leg up on the veteran righty. Alvarez owns a shaky .180/.293/.320 slash line versus RHPs this year but went .292/.419/.625 last year.
Meanwhile, Williams has been abysmal against opposite-handed batters. LHHs are slashing .321/.387/.500 against him this year after slashing .301/.363/.510 last year. If Alvarez is ever going to bounce back against opposite-handed pitchers, tonight’s matchup against the Nats is a great spot.
MLB Player Prop Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 at ESPNBet
For the best price currently available, check out our Yordan Alvarez total bases live odds page!
MLB Betting Model Pick Today: Mitch Keller
The Boston Red Sox will line up against the Pittsburgh Pirates and RHP Mitch Keller this afternoon. Our MLB betting model really likes this under for Keller, who, even though he’ll take on a Boston lineup that ranks 25th in strikeouts taken per game (9.9), I’m eager to fade. Keller’s 19.8% strikeout rate (34th percentile) isn’t great, and while it was better last year (25.5%) his career average (22.6%) suggests the truth is between those numbers. Of course, the model doesn’t use projections — it wants action on this bet because we’re beating the market substantially:
The screenshot reveals that Keller will cost you -130 to stay under 6.5 strikeouts at ESPNBet and Hard Rock. Almost every other book has this at -135 or worse. Pinnacle, a sharp book, has this bet priced for -177.
How does the model work? You can read our guide to using +EV betting tools here, but, in short, it takes in the odds from across the market, weights them for book sharpness and other factors, and identifies the breakeven point for each bet.
Bets like this one, when wagered over a sufficiently large sample, can transform your bankroll — just as the results to prove it.
For the rest of our tools’ picks, subscribe to guide to using +EV tools.
MLB Betting Model Pick: Mitch Keller Under 6.5 Strikeouts -130 at ESPNBet
For the best price currently available, check out our Mitch Keller total strikeouts live odds page!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Wyatt Langford
You can count on our betting tools to find plenty of home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day, and this bet for Wyatt Langford stands out. Langford, a rookie on the Texas Rangers, clocks in at odds of +870 on FanDuel despite trading at +625 or shorter at literally every other sportsbook.
Langford is still looking for his first home run, but he has two batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences of at least one ballpark, one of which would’ve gone for a home run at Truist Park. Do note that the MLB weather report calls for a 60% chance of rain, so there’s a possibility that we won’t get this one in today (or have to deal with delays).
Still, don’t forget that even if Langford doesn’t hit his first actual home run tonight, the fact we’re able to buy a bet like this one at such long odds means that similar wagers should yield meaningful returns over the long term. The key is just getting enough exposure to a wide sample of these bets to insulate yourself from variance.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Wyatt Langford home run live odds page!
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