Finally, it’s Opening Day in the MLB for every team that wasn’t lucky enough to play in South Korea last week (except those who have had their games rained out already). Let’s waste no time diving into our top MLB picks today as our experts break down their best MLB bets for Thursday, March 28, including a Yu Darvish pick. If you’re hungry for more, check out our MLB player prop betting.
MLB Picks Today: Expert Bets for Thursday, March 28
MLB Expert Pick #1: Best Yankees-Astros Bet
I have major concerns about Framber Valdez going forward after his lackluster second half of 2023. Actually, his lackluster 2023 as a whole: his ground ball rate went from an absurd 70.4% in 2021 and 67.4% in 2022 to a measly 55.2% in 2023.
That wouldn’t be a huge issue if it weren’t for the combination of increased hard (45.6% hard-hit rate in 2023) and accentuated fly-ball rate (18.5% fly-ball rate in 2023 after just 10.6% in 2022).
Valdez gives up that hard to righties and lefties alike, and power at the top of this Yankees order is certainly not lacking.
While Nestor Cortes shouldn’t be generating a ton of swing-and-misses against this Astros lineup, he had a 31.1% K rate and .084 xISO vs. LHH in 2023, a useful metric when facing Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, who bat second and third, respectively.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Yankees ML +130 at BetMGM
MLB Expert Pick #2: Best Yu Darvish Bet
OddsShopper’s MLB betting tools recommend that you get some action on this Yu Darvish strikeout bet before the value gets gobbled up by other bettors — the early bird does, indeed, get the worm.
Hard Rock is offering the Yu Darvish under 5.5 total strikeouts for only +115 despite the rest of the public books taking action on this bet for +100 or steeper — and Pinnacle, a sharp book, pricing it at -121.
Using a market-based betting approach can feel weird, but it’s profitable. Between the start of the NBA season and the All-Star Break, the model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip and 5% on those wagered two hours before tip.
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MLB Pick: Yu Darivsh Under 5.5 Total Strikeouts +115 at Hard Rock
MLB Expert Pick #3: Best Nestor Cortes Bet
Coming off an injury-plagued season, I’m not expecting much success for Nestor Cortes against the Astros on Opening Day. I don’t see Cortes lasting long into this one; Cortes threw just 72 and 80 pitches in his first starts of the year in 2022 and 2023, respectively. He didn’t reach 100 pitches until his sixth start last year.
On top of the caution I see the Yankees using early in the year, he’ll open 2024 with an Astros team that rarely strikes out. Houston had the seventh-most at-bats vs. left-handed pitchers last year but finished with the seventh-fewest strikeouts.
Tack on the value we’re getting in the market (Pinnacle is at -162, ESPNBet is at -140 and BetMGM is at -135), this is my favorite bet on Thursday.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Nestor Cortes Under 4.5 Strikeouts -118 at FanDuel
MLB Expert Pick #4: Best Christian Encarnacion-Strand Bet
Sometimes I like to take a chalk play on the home run markets, and that’s exactly what we’re doing with budding superstar Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The youngster looked excellent in spring training, mashing five home runs while slashing .333/.382/.784.
Encarnacion-Strand was good last year, too. He didn’t see enough plate appearances to be ranked at Statcast, but he recorded a .476 xSLG with an average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and sweet-spot rate that all would’ve ranked in the top third of the MLB.
Importantly, Strand mashed 11.3 expected home runs, 12 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Great American Ball Park, and 12 of his 13 actual home runs came against pitchers like Gray. Great American ranks first in park factors for home runs to all batters, RHHs and LHHs.
The two have yet to meet, but I suspect Encarnacion-Strand will send a ball over his home stadium’s fence in their first meeting today. Play Encarnacion-Strand to get a home run (+340 at BetMGM) today. You’ll find him trading at worse prices for both bets elsewhere.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Christian Encarnacion-Strand Over 1.5 Total Bases +130 at BetMGM
