After getting rid of the shift and implementing the pitch clock, the MLB is trending back in the right direction this season. I spent years tuning out baseball, but the sport is starting to get on my betting radar — especially the home run markets. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from home run picks to tennis props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. Waiting for your selected player to get his next at-bat — and then hoping they get the right pitch to send yard — can make any afternoon much more enjoyable. Especially when you hit. Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today: Two Sluggers Stand Out Today
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 8:10 p.m. ET on AppleTV+
Isaiah’s Pick: William Contreras
We’ve got LHP Rich Hill (6-5) on the mound for the Pirates tonight, so that means it’s time to back one of Milwaukee’s right-handed sluggers to hit a home run. The 43-year-old Hill has allowed 11 home runs this year, all of which went to right-handed hitters. Hill has given up a home run in his last three starts.
Milwaukee’s leading slugger, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, is a left-handed hitter, so we’re pivoting off him and targeting catcher William Contreras. Contreras has eight home runs in 188 at-bats. Half of them have come against left-handed pitchers in only 32.4% of the at-bats. His OPS improves from .750 to .900 when lined up against lefties.
A few other factors point to value here. Contreras has two career at-bats against Hill. He has one hit, which went for a triple, against him. Also, the Brewers will host this game at American Family Field, which ranks seventh in park factors for home runs to right-handed hitters over the last three years.
Let’s ride with Contreras here. The asking price is a bit high at DraftKings today.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: William Contreras +450 at DraftKings
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies | 7:20 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Matt Olson
After trusting a longshot in Trea Turner last night, 70% off your first month!
I don’t need to say much to prove that Olson is an elite power hitter. He has 19 home runs this year already, and ESPN projects him for 45 this season. He hit a home run in the first game against the Colorado Rockies last night as well. Olson, a lefty, will take on RHP Dinelson Lamet (1-3) tonight, whose 10.38 ERA and 4.62 xERA make him a logical target.
But as I say in every column, the on-field factors don’t play into the access to Dinger Tuesday and can get a no-sweat first bet worth up to $2,500!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Matt Olson +255 at FanDuel
