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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Keep Targeting Coors Field Today
Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks | 3:40 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Isaiah’s Target: Wander Franco at Caesars
I’ve already got action on two player props for this game, but I just can’t stay away from this Wander Franco home run line. Let me go through my singular concern with this pick before diving into what I like about it: Arizona’s Chase Field ranks fourth-worst for home runs to left-handed batters. Fortunately, it ranks second for doubles and third for triples, so Franco’s base props have value. Franco is also a switch-hitter and may bat from the right side later in the game.
There are many things to like about targeting Franco in this spot. First, he’ll take on a bad pitcher. Minor leaguer RHP Brandon Pfaadt (0-2) has gotten the call again for Arizona. He has allowed 18 home runs in the minors and eight home runs in the majors this year. Second, seven of Franco’s nine home runs and 25 of his 31 extra-base hits this season have come against RHPs like Pfaadt. Yet despite those factors, we can buy Franco at the low price of 8-1 (11.1%) via Caesars Sportsbook to hit a home run. Sign me up.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Wander Franco +800 at Caesars
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox | 4:05 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: Mike Moustakas at FanDuel
I try to avoid the early games, but with LHP Lance Lynn (4-8) on the mound for Chicago, we can’t up the Angels today. Lynn has surrendered 19 home runs and 17 expected home runs on the year. Three batters on the Angels roster have three-career home runs against Lynn: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Mike Moustakas. Lynn’s primary weakness this season has been left-handed batting, as lefties have racked up 14 of those 19 home runs. With Angel Stadium ranked third-best in park factors for home runs to lefties, we’re getting exposure to Moustakas.
Mike Moustakas just ed the Angels this week after getting dealt from the Colorado Rockies. Since then, the 34-year-old slugger has racked up three singles and nothing more. However, Moustakas owns four home runs and 11 extra-base hits this year. While the Rockies didn’t often feature him against LHPs, he owns seven hits, two extra-base hits and a home run against them in just 24 at-bats. There is a chance that the Angels choose to use Moustakas as a reserve today, so although FanDuel has the best price, consider waiting to lock in this play.
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Mike Moustakas +500 at FanDuel
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies | 8:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Model Pick: Max Muncy at FanDuel
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Both the matchup and stadium make this an attractive play. Coors Field ranks as the best MLB stadium for home runs. The Rockies will start RHP Chase Anderson (0-2), who has allowed 11 home runs and 8.9 expected home runs so far this season. Left-handed batters like Muncy have ed for six of Anderson’s 11 home runs allowed in 15 fewer plate appearances.
That said, the Our model thinks a fair price is +293 (25.5%), so we’re beating the market and getting a solid amount of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +320 (23.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Max Muncy +320 at FanDuel
