We’ve finally made it. After four days without meaningful baseball — and two days without any baseball at all — the MLB will return from the All-Star Break tonight. Let’s dive into today’s home run picks, including Brenton Doyle, who is a solid bet to go yard at Coors Field. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Back This Longshot at Coors Field
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 7:10 p.m. ET on Apple TV+
Isaiah’s Target: Francisco Lindor at FanDuel
FanDuel has set the odds for Francisco Lindor to hit a home run at an off-market +500 (16.7%) while just about every other book has odds of +380 (20.8%) or shorter. We’re getting more than enough value to warrant a small wager for market-based reasons, but I want a full unit of action spread across the home run and total base odds.
Lindor draws a matchup against a tepid LHP Julio Urias. Urias has given up 14 home runs and 13.8 expected home runs this season, which ranks 38th overall. However, he has an unusually high no-doubter percentage at 71.4%, which suggests he is less prone to variance than other pitchers in this range. Urias owns a 4.76 ERA and 4.06 xERA as well. He has avoided giving up a dinger in both of his starts this month but gave up seven in his three immediately prior starts.
Although he struggled with the Mets early, Lindor has performed steadily this season. He has hit 19 home runs and 18.7 expected home runs, both of which rank second on the Mets. He also owns a .356 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), which ranks third on the team. Lindor, a switch-hitter, has a chance to take advantage of a split-heavy pitcher in Urias, who has allowed 2- extra-base hits and 10 home runs to RHBs.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Francisco Lindor +500 at FanDuel
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Yankees | 8:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Brenton Doyle at FanDuel
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Doyle, a 25-year-old outfielder, has looked solid for the Rockies thus far. We’ve seen him hit six home runs on 5.8 expected home runs to date while recording a .287 xwOBA. Those numbers aren’t great, but because this game will take place at Coors Field, it’s hard to ignore longshots like Doyle. Four of his six home runs have come at home, where he owns a .628 OPS.
That said, the Our model thinks a fair price is +721 (12.2%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +830 (10.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number is unlikely to remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Brenton Doyle +830 at FanDuel
