We have afternoon baseball rolling along all day, concluding with an intrastate evening game between the Astros and Rangers in Arlington. Here we will attack that game with a home run pick from our how to bet on MLB player props.
MLB Player Home Run Pick Today: Sunday, April 7
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Corey Seager
You know what makes for a good Tuesday? A true chalk home run pick getting a positive OS rating in the OddsShopper model.
Corey Seager trails only his teammate Adolis Garcia in of likelihood to hit a home run today (29% and 32%, respectively). Seager has just a single home run on the season, but he is still seeing the ball extremely well, posting a 184 OPS+ through seven games.
Today’s matchup is Ronel Blanco, who, despite a strong first start this year, has been more of a gas can at certain points throughout his career. That included allowing an ISO over .200 in 2023 and one of .260 the year prior.
Seager, meanwhile, hit 26 of his 33 homers off of righties and 23 of his total at home last year. He also had a .333 ISO against opposite-handed pitchers.
One has to assume that Seager’s hot start will soon result in some more home runs; taking a swing on it happening tonight in Arlington is as good a time as any. On top of the 29% expected win rate on taking him to go deep, this bet is coming in +EV by 3% and inviting a $3 bet size, making it the best home run pick of the nightcap.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Corey Seager home run live odds page!
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