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MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday, August 15
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Thursday, August 15
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@is_sirois – Player Prop – Rafael Devers O/U 1.5 TB: As the Red Sox head to Camden Yards, the Orioles will trot out RHP Zach Eflin, who LHB Rafael Devers absolutely kills. Devers owns a .462/.462/1.154 slash line over 13 at-bats versus Eflin. He also owns a .322/.408/.671 slash line against all RHPs this season.
Eflin has been effective against LHBs this year, limiting them to a .232/.265/.365 slash line, but that didn’t stop Devers from mashing a double against him back in May. Eflin’s slash line may even be obfuscated by his former home park — the Trop ranks 29th in park factors for LHBs.
With Eflin now pitching in Camden Yards, which ranks 15th in park factors for LHBs (eighth for base hits, 25th for doubles and ninth for home runs), things will get a bit trickier for him. It helps that Devers is slashing an absurd .455/.500/.636 in Charm City this year.
Once Eflin exits, he’ll turn it over to a solid Baltimore bullpen that has allowed the fourth-fewest hits (349) and the 10th-fewest home runs (44). But it’s not just Eflin that Devers is crushing — he sports a .349/.398/.640 slash line against all of Baltimore’s active pitchers.
The only two healthy southpaws in Baltimore’s bullpen, LHP Keegan Akin and LHP Gregory Soto, have allowed Devers to slash .286/.375/.429 and .286/.286/.571, respectively. It’s simply absurd that Devers will cost us only +129 at Caesars for a multi-base performance.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases +129 at Caesars
@nd_joyce – Player Prop – Bryce Harper O/U 1.5 H/R/RBI: LHB Bryce Harper has basically been the living embodiment of the man on fire GIF over the last week. He is hitting .409 with a homer, three doubles and a 1.162 OPS. So, with one of the best hitters in baseball dialed in at the plate, there’s absolutely no reason we should be getting a -125 line on his hits, runs and RBIs line tonight.
The Phillies welcome in LHP Mitchell Parker and the Washington Nationals, where Harper and the Phils have a projected run total of five tonight.
At first glance, Parker’s numbers look decent. He sports a 3.83 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. But when we take a look under the hood, we see an expected ERA of 4.50 and a guy who isn’t getting swings and misses (21.2% whiff rate) and is below a 20% strikeout rate.
What’s more is that he throws predominantly two pitches against LHBs, a four-seam fastball and a slider. As a guy who already struggles to get the ball by hitters, having a limited arsenal against a hitter of Harper’s caliber seems like a bit of a death wish.
In 143 at-bats against lefties this season, Harper has hit .301 and is slugging .559 with 8 home runs and 13 doubles this season. Obviously, it’s a smaller sample, but it’s still a tad surprising that Harper has been 31 points better against same-handed pitchers.
In his brief career, Parker has proven to be a reverse-splits pitcher so far. He’s allowing a .277/.303/.375 slash line to lefties as opposed to a .232/.288/.399 right-handed batters.
Hitters of Harper’s ilk know no bounds, and -125 is not nearly steep enough odds. This line should be something closer to -145 or -150, especially in this type of matchup and hitting environment.
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MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 H/R/RBI -125 at DraftKings
