Happy Sunday! Although the weekend is almost over, it’s also the last weekend without meaningful football — college football returns for Week 0 next weekend! But if you’re hoping to build your bankroll before football starts, why not tail our MLB expert picks today? Let’s dive into our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Sunday, August 18
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Sunday, August 18
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@is_sirois – Player Prop – Heliot Ramos O/U 1.5 TB: The San Francisco Giants are visiting the Oakland Athletics today, and it’s LHP J.P. Sears taking the bump for them. Sears, who was one of the worst players in the MLB by total xHR allowed last season, has improved at limiting power, but RHBs are still slashing .253/.322/.438 against him. Last year, they slashed .232/.303/.446.
Sears sports a solid .244 xBA (44th percentile) to go with a 6.6% walk rate (70th), so he isn’t the absolute pumpkin that I like to target with total base props. However, when he takes the bump at home, things get sloppier than they do on the road — he allows opposing batters to hit .259 in the Coliseum.
Taking on Sears today is Heliot Ramos, whose .384/.460/.767 slash line versus LHPs is excellent. Ramos owns a .251 xBA (48th), which isn’t all that impressive, but his .486 xSLG (85th) most certainly is. Combine that with his 15.5% barrel rate (95th) and 75.4 mph bat speed (93rd) and we’ve got the makings of a future stud batter.
Ramos has lined up against Sears once before, notching a base hit over three plate appearances. That was a home game for him earlier this season, and Oracle Park ranks 27th in park factors for RHBs. With the rematch taking place in the Oakland Coliseum, which ranks a slightly better 24th (and is fifth for doubles), I have more faith in Ramos today.
Let’s get some action on Ramos to tally multiple bases today. You’ll find this prop trade at +128 at BetMGM. You’ll find it priced at +114 on Pinnacle, a sharp book, which isn’t a huge edge, but it’s a meaningful one.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Heliot Ramos Over 1.5 Total Bases +128 at BetMGM
BetMGM in this prime spot against our dustball buddy.
Obviously, Ramirez is the best hitter in the Guardians’ lineup, so it doesn’t really take a rocket scientist to suggest an over on his props. But, humor me.
Ramirez is nuking two of the three pitches he’s likely to see most from Rea today — the sinker and fastball. This season, he’s hitting .288 with a 53.1% hard-hit rate against the sinker, and .265 with a 41.5% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer. Not to mention, he’s slugging .556 and .636 against those pitches, respectively.
Milwaukee is one of the best parks in of left-handed home run power over the last three years as well, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factor data. And Rea has given up 12 home runs and a .743 OPS to lefties in 2024.
He also struggles at home, where he’s pitched to a 4.26 ERA and given up 15 of his 20 home runs this season. Despite his seven earned run outing last time out against the Dodgers, Rea is still No. 4 in of greatest differential between actual ERA (3.72) and expected ERA (5.08). So, if Baseball Savant’s expected stats are worth their salt, he’s still due some regression.
There’s no better hitter in the Guardians’ lineup to serve him up a big dose than Jose Ramirez. For more winning picks like this one and access to a personalized Discord, sign up for my personal picks package here.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 TB +110 at BetMGM
