After a tight Thursday slate that saw our experts split 1-1 (nice hit, MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, June 21
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, June 21
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or subscribe to OddsShopper for every pick!
I don’t generally buy into home and away splits, but Paddack might break the mold for me. His 8.20 ERA, .315 batting average and .368 wOBA on the road this season is absolutely obscene.
Bleday has been one of the Athletics’ best hitters against right-handed pitchers this season, ranking second behind only Brent Rooker (146) in of wRC+ with a mark of 139.
The third-year lefty has tapped into some power and is slugging .467 on the year with 22 doubles and 10 homers. That extra-base hit potential helps to get himself into scoring position for others like Rooker or Miguel Andujar to knock him in, as well as drive in runners who are already on base in front of him.
And if he’s going to be driving the ball tonight, it’ll likely come on the pitch Paddack relies on most — the fastball. Paddack throws his four-seamer 42.5% of the time, and Bleady loves to sit on fastballs.
This season, Bleday is hitting .317 with a .564 SLG% and a 36.8% hard-hit rate on four-seamers — and 25 of his 35 extra-base hits have come on this pitch as well.
It’s a great matchup for Bleday to cash a near even-money bet for us — and I wouldn’t even mind a total bases or home run bet if you’re feeling frisky.
MLB Expert Pick Today: JJ Bleday Over 1.5 H/R/RBI -105 at ESPNBET
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Joc Pederson O/U 1.5 TB: The Arizona Diamondbacks are on the east coast to take on the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, and it’s RHP Taijuan Walker taking the bump for Philadelphia. It’s been a season to forget for Walker, who sports a brutal 5.84 xERA (4th percentile) and .278 xBA (11th). He is giving up 2.1 xHR per nine, and lefty batters are slashing a brutal .327/.383/.564 against him with 12 extra-base hits and six home runs.
Pederson stands out as the sharpest target to go yard against Walker. While the switch-hitting Ketel Marte is another possible option, he is slashing just .255/.318/.386 against righties this year, while Pederson is slashing a far more impressive .299/.391/.509.
Beyond his splits, Pederson’s expected stats are quite good this season. The 32-year-old sports a .282 xBA (87th percentile) to go with a .472 xSLG (80th).
He has hit 8.9 xHR to date, including nine batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Philadelphia.
The MLB weather report is also in our favor today, as we can expect nine mph winds blowing out through right-center field, where Pederson, a lefty hitter, naturally pulls the ball. He has a career slash line of .423/.444/.654 against Walker, making him a solid bet for multiple bases (+110 at ESPN) and a home run (+300 at FanDuel).
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Joc Pederson Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at ESPNBET
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
