If you’re looking for the best home run pick on the board today, look no further than Brent Rooker of the Oakland Athletics. The slugging right-hander is in a prime position to go deep, making him our top HR pick today — not just because of his recent power surge, but because the numbers, the matchup and the betting odds all point to value. Let’s break down why Rooker is the best home run pick for today’s MLB slate.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Brent Rooker
Rooker has already crushed four home runs in his first nine games this season. That’s obviously unsustainable, but it shows he’s seeing the ball extremely well and making elite early.
This isn’t a fluke. Rooker had stretches last season where he was among the league leaders in barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. When he’s locked in, he’s one of the most dangerous power bats in the American League.
Rooker and the Athletics face Rockies rookie Chase Dollander today. Dollander is making his first big league start, and Coors Field is a brutal place to learn on the job. A rookie making his first few starts, in a hitter’s park, against a hot bat is exactly the kind of situation where power hitters feast.
Did we mention the game is at Coors Field? It’s the most hitter-friendly stadium in baseball — especially for home runs. Even in early April, the elevation advantage is huge. It adds roughly 5% to 10% distance to well-hit balls, which can make all the difference on a deep fly.
That’s a huge bonus to anyone betting on a home run pick today — and Rooker is set up perfectly to take advantage. At +425, you only need Rooker to hit a home run about 19% of the time to break even. But given the matchup, the park and his recent form, we project his true HR probability closer to 22% to 24%.
That makes this a +EV play — a bet where the probability of success is greater than what the odds imply. That’s how sharp bettors profit long term, even when targeting longshots like home runs.
Best Home Run Bet Today: Brent Rooker (+425, BetMGM)
