Want the best home run bets today? Trevor Story has a hot bat, a homer-prone opposing pitcher and long odds that offer excellent value. Let’s break down why Story is the best home run pick on today’s MLB slate.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Trevor Story
Story is starting to look a bit more like his old self. The Boston shortstop already has three home runs in the early going this season and leads the team in that category. He’s shown great pop against right-handed pitching, and his exit velocity and ISO suggest that his power is real and sustainable.
Story faces Ryan Pepiot, who’s been extremely home run prone in 2025. Pepiot has already allowed four home runs in just three starts this season, with a sky-high 2.3 HR/9. He struggles especially against right-handed hitters, giving up a .413 wOBA and .351 ISO to righties.
Tonight’s game will be played at George M. Steinbrenner Field, a temporary home for the Rays that’s much more hitter-friendly than Tropicana Field. We’ve already seen multiple home runs hit there this series, and conditions are perfect again tonight: Mild temps and minimal wind.
You can find Story to hit a home run at +600 odds on FanDuel, which implies just a 14% chance of a homer. But based on his current form, the pitcher matchup and game conditions, Story’s true odds are closer to 20%.
Best Home Run Pick Today: Trevor Story (+600, FanDuel)
