FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Home Run Picks & Strategy for May 21 (2024)

Starting Pitchers to Fade

by xHR allowed (source):

Carlos Carrasco (CLE): 8.8 xHR
9 xHR at Progressive Field

Griffin Canning (LAA): 8.2 xHR
8 xHR at Minute Maid Park

Joe Musgrove (SD): 7.9 xHR
9 xHR at Great American Ball Park

Joe Ryan (MIN): 7.4 xHR
7 xHR at Nationals Park

Trevor Rogers (MIA): 6.3 xHR
5 xHR at loanDepot Park

Stadiums to Target

by wind speed out (source):

Wrigley Field (CHC vs. ATL)
22 mph to RCF, 83° F, 44% humidity

Busch Stadium (STL vs. BAL)
20 mph to RCF, 92° F, 42% humidity

Kauffman Stadium (KC vs. DET)
17 mph to CF, 80° F, 56% humidity

Minute Maid Park (HOU vs. LAA)
14 mph to CF, 85° F, 72% humidity

Dodger Stadium (LAD vs. ARI)
10 mph to RCF, 65° F, 70% humidity

High-Scoring Games

by game total (source):

ATL @ CHC
o10.5-124

SD @ CIN
o9.5+100

DET @ KC
o9-115

NYM @ CLE
o9-115

BAL @ STL
o9-110

@GEhrenbergDFS Julio Rodriguez – SEA: +600

@EricLindquist Kyle Schwarber – PHI: +265

@JazzrazDFS JT Realmuto – PHI: +330

@nd_joyce Michael Busch – CHC: +600
Full analysis below!

@shanderbets Carlos Correa – MIN: +900

@is_sirois Kyle Tucker – HOU: +350
Full analysis below!

@EMacDFS Anthony Santander – BAL: +310

@Loughy_D Ryan Jeffers – MIN: +330

@nd_joyce Michael Busch – CHC: +600

Here’s a simple scientific formula for home runs:

Flyball Hitters + 22 mph winds out + Wrigley Field

We get that very situation tonight when Braves starter Charlie Morton faces the Cubs in an extremely gusty Wrigley. Lefty slugger Michael Busch will be lurking in the middle of the lineup.

Against right-handed pitching this season, Busch is hitting 44% of his balls in the air with 33.3% hard and 52.2% medium .

While the batting average is only .245, Busch possess immense power and ranks in 87th percentile in the league in Barrel Percentage, per Baseball Savant.

On a night like tonight when the wind is blowing out over 20 mph, any ball in the air struck with any kind of decent force has a great chance to leave the yard.

@is_sirois Kyle Tucker – HOU: +350

The Houston Astros get to host the Los Angeles Angels and RHP Griffin Canning in a favorable matchup for them tonight. It hasn’t been smooth sailing in Houston this year, but that’s no fault of Kyle Tucker, who is slashing .288/.421/.618 thus far. Tucker’s .299 xBA (92nd percentile) and .588 xSLG (96th percentile) are both elite.

Tucker will also benefit from facing a RHP. He is slashing .296/.433/.630 against opposite-handed pitchers this season with 16 extra-base hits, 10 of which went for home runs. Meanwhile, Canning has struggled against opposite-handed batters, allowing them to slash .294/.350/.505 with 12 extra-base hits and five home runs.

This one is in Minute Maid Park, and we should see 14 mph winds blowing out through center field tonight in Houston. The 85-degree weather and 72% humidity also stand to help carry the ball out of the park. Tucker is slashing .315/.466/.696 at his home stadium with 17 extra base hits and eight home runs. While he owns only 10.9 expected home runs, he has 15 expected home runs in Houston.