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Here’s how FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday:
Home Run Picks & Strategy for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday | June 4
What Do You Need to Know for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday?
Starting Pitchers to Fade
by xHR allowed (source):
Bailey Ober (MIN): 11.4 xHR
10 xHR at Yankee Stadium
George Kirby (SEA): 10.4 xHR
11 xHR at Oakland Coliseum
Triston McKenzie (CLE): 9.8 xHR
11 xHR at Progressive Field
Stadiums to Target
by wind speed out (source):
Minute Maid Park (HOU vs. STL)
15 mph to CF, 88° F, 68% humidity
Oakland Coliseum (OAK vs. SEA)
10 mph to RCF, 83° F, 60% humidity
Angel Stadium (LAA vs. SD)
7 mph to CF, 73° F, 60% humidity
OddsShopper’s Expert Home Run Picks
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@EricLindquist Seiya Suzuki – CHC: +320
@JazzrazDFS Jorge Soler – SF: +350
@nd_joyce Bryce Harper – PHI: +340
Full analysis below!
@shanderbets Johan Rojas – PHI: +1060
@is_sirois Bobby Witt Jr. – KC: +350
Full analysis below!
@JoshEngleman Anthony Rizzo – NYY: +600
@gehrenbergdfs Pete Alonso – NYM: +310
@Loughy_D Cody Bellinger – CHC: +370
Home Run Pick Analysis: Bryce Harper & Bobby Witt Jr.
@nd_joyce Bryce Harper – PHI: +340
Bryce Harper gets the cush matchup against a soft-tossing righty in Citizens Bank Park with the wind blowing out tonight.
The Phillies slugger should get a few ABs against Brewers scrub Colin Rea, who is allowing a .485 SLG% and has given up seven of his eight home runs to left-handed hitters this season.
A quick glance at how Harper hits at The Bank:
11 home runs
639 SLG%
.320 ISO
And the pitch mix Rea features is a sinker-cutter-fastball profile, which Harper has positive run values against this season. Even at +340, it feels like we’re getting a few points of value here.
@is_sirois Bobby Witt Jr. – KC: +350
The Kansas City Royals will visit the Cleveland Guardians tonight, and getting on the road should benefit no one more from a home run perspective than Bobby Witt Jr.
Sure, six of his nine home runs have come at home this year — but the man has 13.1 expected home runs, largely because just eight of the 23 batted balls that could’ve been home runs would’ve counted at Kauffman Field.
A monstrous 14 would’ve cleared the fences at Progressive Field.
Again, Witt’s home slash line (.364/.428/.678) is far better than his road slash line (.262/.303/.402), so this isn’t a traditional split-based wager. We just want the better park factors…
Still, it’s not like Witt is unfamiliar with Progressive Field — he slashed .286/.355/.571 here last season with five extra-base hits, one of which was a home run.
Witt takes on RHP Triston McKenzie, who has coughed up 11 actual and 9.8 expected home runs this season. McKenzie’s 3.77 ERA is solid, but his 4.59 xERA (24th percentile) is very much not. Fastball velocity has been an issue for McKenzie, as he is down to 90.9 mph (9th). That will be a problem against Witt, who sports a .866 xSLG against four-seam fastballs this season.
Let’s back Witt to go yard (-117 at Caesars). While he needs to start stepping up on the road more often, today’s matchup is the perfect spot for him to get right. It helps that he sports an elite .334 xBA (100th percentile) and .635 xSLG (98th) as well.
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