FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Home Run Picks & Strategy for June 11 (2024)

Starting Pitchers to Fade

by xHR allowed (source):

Triston McKenzie (CLE): 12.7 xHR
1.8 xHR/9

Miles Mikolas (STL): 12.2 xHR
1.5 xHR/9

Dane Dunning (TEX): 10.9 xHR
1.9 xHR/9

Stadiums to Target

by wind speed out (source):

Target Field (MIN vs. COL)
11.5 mph to RCF, 80° F, 44% humidity

Dodger Stadium (LAD vs. TEX)
9 mph to RCF, 67° F, 65% humidity

Oracle Park (SF vs. HOU)
8 mph to LCF, 67° F, 61% humidity

High-Scoring Games

by game total (source):

NYY @ KC
o9.5+100

CLE @ CIN
o9-118

LAA @ ARI
o9-106

@EricLindquist Trevor Larnach – MIN: +470

@JazzrazDFS Aaron Judge – NYY: +230

@nd_joyce Jose Ramirez – CLE: +400
Full analysis below!

@shanderbets Rafael Devers – BOS: +440

@is_sirois Shohei Ohtani – LAD: +260
Full analysis below!

@JoshEngleman Abraham Toro – OAK: +600

@Loughy_D Elly De La Cruz – CIN: +470

@gehrenbergdfs Adolis Garcia – TEX: +340

@nd_joyce Jose Ramirez – CLE: +400

Ramirez finds himself in one of the best hitting environments in baseball tonight, getting a matchup against Brent Suter in Great American Ball Park.

The left-handed Suter has struggled with the home run at times in his career, and especially so this season with Cincinnati, as he is allowing 1.54 home runs per nine innings and a nearly 15% home run/flyball rate. 

As a switch-hitter, Ramirez will flip to the right-handed side of the box tonight, where he has 71 career home runs and a .210 ISO.

But let’s zoom in even closer to see just how J-Ram matches up with what Suter will be dealing him tonight. 

Against right-handed batters, the Reds lefty relies mostly on two pitches — the four-seam fastball and the changeup. The other two pitches he uses sparingly are a sinker and slider.

And if we look to see how Jose Ramirez performs against any — or all — of those pitches, we see he absolutely NUKES the fastball, hammers the changeup and is smashing the slider-sinker combo:

This is, by far, my favorite home run bet on the entire slate today. 

@is_sirois Shohei Ohtani – LAD: +260

This pick is a bit of a yawner, and for what it’s worth, I like Elly De La Cruz (+470) as well tonight. The Texas Rangers have yet to announce their starting pitcher for the evening, but it’s RHP Dane Dunning’s turn in the rotation, and if he sees any action tonight, that’s a problem. Dunning owns a miserable 5.26 xERA with 10.9 xHR coughed up in just 50.2 innings pitched. If Dunning had played every game in Dodger Stadium, he would’ve coughed up 12 home runs.

But that’s all the speculation we’ll do about Dunning — the Rangers have reportedly considered moving him to the pen. He could work in bulk relief behind an opener. If it’s not Dunning, who could it be? RHP Jon Gray threw a few innings and 37 pitches out of the pen on Saturday, so he might be the guy. In short: I’ve got no idea what the Rangers are cooking.

I do have some ideas about what Shohei Ohtani is cooking, however. The superstar two-way player has mashed 15 actual and 13.3 expected home runs this year, although 16 of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences of Dodger Stadium. Ohtani’s .329 xBA (100th percentile) and .626 xSLG (98th) inspire a ton of confidence regardless of the pitching matchup.

If we see a bad righty like Dunning tonight, Ohtani is slashing .319/.401/.650 with 12 of his home runs against them — but Dunning has held Ohtani without a home run in 21 at-bats. If we see Gray, well, Ohtani has two home runs in 10 at-bats against him. With a steady 9.2 mph wind blowing to right-center field tonight, let’s trust Ohtani to send one into the bleachers — or at least get multiple bases).