What’s going on, everybody? best MLB bets for today.
Best MLB Bets Today: Blue Jays-Orioles Pick and More
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Royals vs. Guardians
We have a really fun pitching matchup here between Chris Bubic and Tanner Bibee, and I’m going to the first-five market to isolate that battle. I’m backing the Royals at +106 on FanDuel.
Bibee’s been shaky out of the gate:
- 5.56 expected slugging allowed
- 14% strikeout rate
- 5.08 expected ERA
This is a clear regression candidate whose underlying numbers have taken a hit, and while his surface-level ERA is still hanging in there, the warning signs are flashing.
On the other side, Bubic has looked great. His breaking ball mix (slider/sweeper/change) has been filthy, and he’s sporting a 27.5% strikeout rate with a 2.29 expected ERA through two starts. He’s only 27, but with several years of MLB experience, it looks like he’s finally putting it all together.
I don’t want to mess with the Cleveland bullpen, so I’m targeting just the first five innings. It’s the best way to back the better starter in this spot.
Best Royals-Guardians Bet Today: Royals First 5 Moneyline (LIKE)
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
You know I love attacking matchups with -heavy righties against pitchers who can’t miss bats. That’s exactly what we have here with George Springer facing Tomoyuki Sugano.
Sugano’s arsenal just isn’t cutting it at the MLB level — he’s throwing a lot of splitters and cutters, but there’s no swing-and-miss. He’s allowing:
- .366 xwOBA
- .281 expected batting average
Springer, meanwhile, has been scorching the ball:
- 61.5% hard-hit rate
- .615 expected slugging
- .344 expected batting average
I’ll be playing Springer over 1.5 total bases as long as we’re getting plus money. I project this line to settle around +130, and anything +115 or better is a green light.
Best Blue Jays-Orioles Bet Today: George Springer Over 1.5 Total Bases (LIKE)
