Apparently, Ozzie Albies read this column before taking the field at Fenway. Belting 6 total bases, he destroyed any hopes of a winning card. The good news is we are here every day, so one minor bump won’t move us off our process. The NBA Finals are back tomorrow — see below for a free play from Betr — so we look tonight once again to the world of Major League Baseball. Plenty of value on the board – thanks as always to our OddsShopper pick’em tool! Let’s dive into my top Betr Picks pick’em predictions for today’s card.
Don’t forget to take advantage full advantage of a free pick: Kyrie Irving MORE than 0.5 points throughout the NBA Finals.
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Betr Picks MLB Pick’em Predictions Today
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Heliot Ramos M/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
Despite getting on base twice, Heliot Ramos ended his night 0-for-2 against the Arizona Diamondbacks. While we’ve seen some decent to strong numbers in certain hitting categories — namely, his .340 xwOBA — he is struggling to prevent strikeouts. Ramos will get a shot at Jordan Montgomery tonight once again in Arizona. While the D-backs may be overall concerned with Montgomery’s performance, he’s facing a guy in Ramos who should offer some bad swings.
It might be too small of a sample size overall for a guy who’s only played in 25 games this year, but the hacking away hasn’t yielded enough positive results to trust him. Eight of the 25 games have been hitless for Ramos, but more concerning are the 34 total strikeouts. Sometimes a guy like Montgomery with a 14.4% K rate just needs a willing dance partner. It may not be pretty, but Ramos will tango tonight.
The Betr Picks. This beats the -132 true odds, which defines our +EV edge.
Betr Picks MLB Pick’em Prediction: Heliot Ramos LOWER Than 1.5 Total Bases
Marcus Semien M/L Than 1.5 Total Bases
Texas is suddenly watching things slip away, mainly at risk of being swept by Detroit. The Tigers will hold their breath and get the most out of Kenta Maeda — no matter how short that stint may be. This gives the Rangers an added edge on at least salvaging this series — not that Jose Urena is much better.
Semien has dipped in the power department, seeing areas of struggle with hard hit% and exit velocity. His xwOBA and xBA are still alive because he just doesn’t strike out much at all. He has a modest five game hit streak going but should struggle to get more than a single tonight.
Before this recent stretch, we saw 13 straight games with one or fewer hits — seven of those with one hit. He’s prone to go through deeper stretches of just not hitting for volume. The matchup may seem great on paper, but we’ve seen him struggle even with four-plus at bats.
We find another edge thanks to the MLB pick’em tool staying ahead of the market. Our +EV play has -122 implied odds beating the -130 true odds. The play is lower than 1.5 total bases with a 2.7% edge.
Betr Picks MLB Pick’em Prediction: Marcus Semien LOWER Than 1.5 Total Bases
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Looking for more 2023-24 MLB predictions or random data? MLB Weather Report page if you’re starting to itch for the summer months!
