The AL Central is interesting this season. The Minnesota Twins lead it with only a 30-27 record, and the Detroit Tigers are only 2.5 games out at 26-28. Detroit lines up against the 23-35 Chicago White Sox early on Saturday. Let’s dig into the betting odds for Saturday afternoon’s Tigers-White Sox game to make our MLB predictions and identify the best bet. We’re fading the banged-up Tigers.
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Best MLB Tigers-White Sox Bet & Prediction: Fade the Banged-Up Tigers
Tigers-White Sox Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Tigers: +130 | White Sox: -165
Over 8.5: -110 | Under 8.5: -110
The Tigers and White Sox are evenly matched on the mound this Saturday. The Tigers will start RHP Michael Lorenzen (2-2), whose 3.50 ERA is a bit inflated relative to his 4.45 xERA. The White Sox will start RHP Dylan Cease (3-3), whose 4.88 ERA is slightly worse than his 4.63 xERA. Lorenzen owns a 4.37 ERA on the road and Cease owns a 4.45 ERA at home.
Detroit would normally have an edge on offense, but with outfielders Riley Greene and Matt Vierling injured, they probably won’t have one on Saturday. The Tigers rank only 28th in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .294, but rank 20th in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .319. Greene and Vierling rank second and fourth on the team in xwOBA, respectively. The White Sox rank 26th in wOBA at .301 and 27th in xwOBA at .306.
With Detroit limited, I’m big on Chicago here. The White Sox have fared worse against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers, as their team OPS dips from .691 to .669 against them, but that’s still better than what the Tigers are doing. Detroit’s team OPS dips from .662 to .653 against right-handed pitchers.
Both myself and OddsShopper’s market-based model like the White Sox here. The model uses the numbers available at Pinnacle and other sharp books to generate a “true” price. With Pinnacle listing Chicago at +127 on the run line, the model believes the true odds for them to cover are +130 — exactly the price we can buy at DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re yet to sign up for DraftKings, you can get $150 in bonus bets after winning a $5 moneyline wager!
Best Tigers-White Sox MLB Bet: White Sox -1.5 for +130 at DraftKings
